#862 Musings Beyond the Bunker (Wednesday February 21)
Good morning,
This is the first of a three-part Musing (appearing over three weeks) on messaging and strategy for the upcoming election. The first, today, addresses (a) Trump’s continuing attractiveness to a large swathe of the populace, as well as (b) thoughts on the Democrats’ inability to defend against mischaracterizations of their own positions. The next Musing on this subject breaks down how I believe Democrats are working hard to lose elections by employing rhetoric about fringe issues. Finally, I’ll give my thoughts on what the Democrats should be saying.
WHY THE ATTRACTION OF TRUMP?
Many Democrats look incredulously at Mr. Trump’s continued ability to entrance and control the Republican establishment, while maintaining fealty from a solid bloc of voters. Explaining the complete surrender of the Republican establishment isn’t all that difficult. They are trading principle for power. And while many expressed reservations about Trump along the way (some even sounding loud alarms), they since have fallen in line. The stories of Republican leaders who loathe and/or fear Trump and what he is doing to America are well known. These reservations are rarely voiced in public any more, as the party is in too deep and they are fearful of their voters. At this point, the radical base is driving the leadership, which is focused only on winning elections.
But how is it that ordinary people, many of whom are our neighbors, relatives, and friends, who might find Mr. Trump personally repulsive—and even dangerous to the Republic— may either vote for Trump or sit out voting in the coming election?
A good number of these voters can be categorized as the aggrieved and disaffected, feeling left behind. I suspect only a fringe harbors the racist or violent views of many of his followers. Rather, many Trump supporters feel he “sees them” as having legitimate grievances and provides voice to their dissatisfaction. Trump characterizes himself as a perennial outsider who stands aggrieved. Somehow has been able to transmute his grievances, in large measure the result of reactions to his own behaviors, into common cause with people with legitimate gripes. Oddly, his martyrdom somehow is viewed a manifestation of the same forces that cause them to feel aggrieved.
Never mind that the Democratic Party historically has been the party of Labor and the working class or that initiatives of recent Democratic presidents have meaningfully improved the lives of those at the lower end of the economic spectrum. It’s more about appearances than about actuality. Today, the Democrats increasingly are perceived as elites who look down on the “flyover people” and the less educated—and that is a very bad look.
Sadly, this solid group of loyal supporters fail to see that his policies while in office pandered to a second group of people who form a solid part of his base. This group is overjoyed by his lowering of marginal tax rates on both earned income and capital gains, while steadfastly preserving inherent loopholes and flaws in our tax system that are designed to reduce taxes for “preferred” Americans (e.g., hedge fund managers, real estate investors, inherited wealth through the stepped-up basis). His actions in office further enrich those like him, driving America’s deficit deeper in a hole.
Finally, there are those who are motivated by the “cultural issues,” such as banning abortion. Curiously, Mr. Trump, whose positions on issues are transactional in nature, is now backing off from his abortion extremism, instead supporting a 16-week ban. Yet I doubt this will be an impediment to the continued fealty of this group. Just as they overlooked his serial sexual predations, they will continue to support him based upon the promise of further nominations to an increasingly radical federal courts system.
IT’S ALL ABOUT IMAGE AND NOT POLICY
I think it fair to say that, other than those motivated primarily toward enrichment via an unfair tax system, most of Trump’s supporters are less concerned with ideas or policy than they are with status, representation, and grievance. Indeed, Mr. Trump rarely has articulated a policy in any great detail that would address their concerns, preferring pronouncements when running for office. Once in office, he was impulsive and unfocused, often reacting in knee-jerk fashion, with personal gain paramount.
Let us remember that Trump claimed a solution to health care, but never proposed a solution. He was going to reset relations with Russia and North Korea, yet failed in each instance. He was going to engage China, but did so only through the blunt instrument of a trade war that had greater negative effect here than in China. He declared war against the CDC and other public health institutions, misdirecting patients to disproven theories and treatments—like bleach. Lest we forget, early in COVID he tried not to admit a cruise ship to port in order to “keep our numbers down.” He was going to improve upon the Iran nuclear deal negotiated under the Obama administration, yet terminated that pact without anything proposed in its stead. And he swore he would reduce deficits while presiding over a massive reduction in taxes targeting the most wealthy, ensuring a massive shortfall in government receipts and a growing deficit.
In light of all these failures, many Democrats are aghast that someone so supremely self-centered and incompetent is still a player on the national stage. What they fail to grasp is that we are in the era of feelings and rhetoric, in which few people focus on policy prescriptions but, rather, are moved by perceived toughness and verbal posturing. The electorate increasingly isn’t voting for things as much as they are voting against others. He continues to tell people who are disaffected what they want to hear. They are great Americans, “their America” has been taken from them, and that he cares about them. Whether his policies follow his rhetoric is another question…
DEMOCRATS MUST CALL OUT THE MISCHARACTERIZATIONS
While many Trump supporters find recognition through Trump’s rhetoric, not pausing to consider his unique defects and danger, Republicans have done an excellent job at defining Democrats in a way that may compel some to vote for Trump or just stay home. Claims like the following have gained purchase in many circles, often without a consistent Democratic push-back. The party needs to be aggressive in restating the facts and pointing out lies when they are made. Here are some of these claims and the challenge for the Democrats:
Abortion. The claim: “Democrats want legalized abortion in all cases, including abortions in the third trimester.” Well, no. Democrats generally favor choice, but only until a point, after which there is a balancing between the mother’s and the fetus’s health. To be clear, well over 90% of all abortions are in the first trimester and those that go beyond either involve fetus or mother’s health or women unaware they are pregnant. Most Democrats are fine with permitting abortions in the first 24 weeks, after which there must be extenuating circumstances.
Gun control. The claim: “Democrats want to take away our guns.” Well, no. No one has been saying we should be rounding up all the guns. The limitations the left (and the middle!) seek include limiting the types of weapons available, the amount of ammunition that can be amassed, and requirements for gun ownership that include background checks, registration, and training.
Sexuality and Gender. The claim: “Democrats want to convince your kids to be gay” and “They want little kids to change their gender through medical procedures, well before they reach majority.” and “They want to teach and encourage medical procedures to alter genitalia, as early as elementary school.” Well, no. These are actually several different issues. On the one hand, elementary school kids certainly can handle the notion of two fathers or two mothers. No one is telling them what to do, as much as having accepting hearts for those who are different. At this point, most reasonable people can agree that homosexuality is not a choice and I’m pretty sure it isn’t contagious. Addressing issues of gender identity has not been proposed as a topic in elementary school. Sure, there is the occasional news story about a random teacher, but it’s the exception. Addressing questions of sexuality, sexual preference, and gender—regardless of choice—really isn’t in the curriculum until Middle School or later.
Everyone’s a Racist. The claim: “Democrats think white people are all racists.” From the way the Republicans would have it, the Democratic party’s primary message is that all white people are racist, privileged, and responsible for all the ills of the world. Well, no. The thrust of the majority on the left is that we should study racism, acknowledge its continuing pernicious effects and address impediments to equal opportunity that exist to this day.
The right wing media continue to feed people their version of what the Democrats believe. These are messaging issues that the Democrats need to address in concise, declarative sentences, repeated over and over if they are to get independents to the polls. To ignore the mischaracterizations of their own positions is to do so at their own peril.
Have a great day,
Glenn