Good morning,
A week has passed since the Special Counsel Robert Hur opined on President Biden’s retention of classified documents after he left the Vice Presidency. I have allowed a week to go by to gather my thoughts, while celebrating Abraham Lincoln and Valentines Day. Here is a series of thoughts about the Special Counsel’s report, the White House clamp-down on Biden appearances, and the political fallout, followed by my prescription for a Democratic victory in November.
CONCLUSIONS FROM THE NEWS
False Equivalency. The actual findings of the Special Counsel are hardly newsworthy. Biden retained documents, probably through simple negligence, and he returned them when asked. This is in no way comparable with Trump, who lied that he took stuff, defied subpoenas, claimed them his own property, maintained he declassified them just by “thinking about it,” said he returned everything (when he didn’t), and hid the documents rather than return them.
He’s a Kindly, Forgetful Elderly Gentleman. This is hardly newsworthy. When Special Counsel Hur describes Biden as appearing to be a kindly elderly man with memory problems, how does this differ from what we already know? Just because he might appear to have memory problems, or even if he might have memory problems, how is this relevant to the case at hand?
Politics Rears Its Ugly Head. Special Counsel Hur, a Trump appointee designated by Merrick Garland, availed himself of the opportunity to seriously damage the Biden reelection bid by declaring that he would appear to a jury to be an elderly man with memory problems. Three things about this: First, Hur, as best as I’ve been able to discern, is not a physician. Second, his gratuitous comment about Biden’s memory does not contribute to the report and one must question his motive. This reeks of a hatchet job. Third, the relatively minor lapses over hours and hours of testimony (including forgetting specific dates and communications) are hardly unreasonable for anyone recalling events in the past. As those of us who have been deposed or attended a deposition (or watched a lawyer procedural on TV), the most common answer is “I don’t recall.”
Garland Invited the Fox Into the Henhouse. Attorney General Merrick Garland, in trying to appear neutral and deflect any accusations of partisanship, elected to appoint a Trumpist as Special Counsel. In the interest of appearing fair, he ended up stacking the deck the other way. None of this should be particularly surprising.
Delay Plays Into Trump’s Strategic Plan. Garland’s long delays in appointing counsel in all of the federal matters pertaining to classified documents, but including all the Trump-related behaviors, is a great example of “the perfect being the enemy of the good.” Garland’s repeated delays of federal prosecutions and appointing prosecutors have resulted in too little, too late. What could have been well on the way to resolution instead is now butting up against the election. Any legal consequence for Trump likely will not result until after the election and, if he’s elected, perhaps not at all. This was a colossal strategic failure and disservice to the country.
THE BIDEN ABSENCE
Let me state clearly my view that President Biden is doing a good job, much of that resulting from surrounding himself with consummate dedicated professionals. We of course should remember that the job of the President is much more of a “team sport” than the media and the candidates might have us believe. This is one of the great distinguishing factors between the Biden administration and the unimpressive likely holders of key posts in a potential Trump administration (the chief requirement being, as we know, fealty to Mr. Trump). Mr. Biden has navigated the legislative process better than any president since Clinton, with an impressive set of accomplishments. There is much to say in his defense.
And yet… President Biden has always been gaffe-prone (remember the Biden of the 80s…), but he seems more so now. He has been noticeably absent from public appearances, speeches, and press conferences. His few press conferences occur after a state dinner or meeting, in concert with the visiting dignitary. He isn’t out very much. It is hard not to conclude that his staff has done its own analysis and would rather he stay in the shadows. In trying to isolate him from situations in which he might misspeak, they have rendered him almost a spectre—rarely seen and unable to convince voters of the record of his first term and his preparedness for a second term.
Of some note, Biden turned down the free press granted with a presidential “interview” during the Super Bowl pre-game festivities. Who turns down tens of millions of viewers and softball questioning on a national day of celebration, even if the questioner is from Fox News?
Either his advisors don’t trust him or their actions confirm the suspicions of many across the political spectrum—that he does not have the mental acuity or the physical stamina necessary for the job.
The Special Counsel’s report, while a cleverly designed political hatchet job, nonetheless has achieved its objective. Many people willing to give Biden the benefit of the doubt now have had their concerns validated. They will not try to parse through the legal technicalities and the appropriateness of the Special Counsel’s observations. It is difficult to see how he overcomes these lingering, and expanding, doubts. It increasingly is hard to see how he can generate the excitement and turnout to win in November. And the only reason he has a slim chance at all is because Trump appears to be the Republican nominee. II’m a skeptic of polling this early in the race, but it’s instructive. It seems any candidate other than Trump would win “in a walk” against Biden. The race isn’t about policies. It’s about perceptions.
BIDEN IS A SUCCESS BUT SHOULD STEP ASIDE
One can find reasons to disagree with President Biden around the periphery, but I believe he fundamentally has done a solid job as president and his presidency will be seen by history as transformative and meaningful. His successes in foreign policy, the economy, climate change, infrastructure, and the Chips act, are admirable.
But it just might be time to go. He has the opportunity to declare his presidency a victory, do a victory lap and welcome a vigorous 6-8 week long effort to identify a Democratic candidate from an impressive lineup of alternatives. Electorally, it doesn’t matter whether the record supports the conclusion that he’s not up to the job. It seems to be the “story of the month”—eclipsing Trump’s legal travails, strong economic numbers, and Trump’s willingness to violate the NATO treaty and let Russia “do whatever the hell it wants.” The overwhelming public perception is that he isn’t able to operate at full capacity. Politics isn’t fair. But it’s hard to feel sorry for Joe. Holding office is not a right; it’s a privilege. Before the Special Counsel’s report, perhaps Biden would have the upper hand as the campaign unfolded and he hit the trail to defend his record. Since the report, the sales job has become much more challenging.
It’s hard to tell a president it’s time to go. After all, most presidents and presidential candidates have a strong dose of narcissism in their makeup. They believe their own narrative. That said, LBJ’s advisors convinced him he had no chance in 1968. Nixon’s advisors (and key leaders from Congress) convinced him the jig was up in 1974. Whether the advice will come from inside the White House (I doubt it, as these people like their job and are starry-eyed about another four years) or from party leaders, I believe it will come. So, how best to do it?
THE DEMOCRATIC VICTORY PLAN
This is my conclusion for how this could play out. First, nothing is gained by opening up a primary race this late into the primary season. Potential candidates haven’t had the opportunity to raise money, establish their visibility, and stake-out policy ground. Plus, the internecine warfare of the moderate left against the hard left (either the Sanders/Warren camp or the “squad” or both) could be fatal. Biden has to remain in the race as the presumptive nominee, amassing delegates through at least March through May. Once he has secured a commanding delegate lead, it is up to him and his key aides as to how things play out from there. He should announce in June that he is not running.
I believe Biden will have an extraordinarily difficult road to win the general election at this point, now that he has been Comeyed, while his verbal gaffes will continue. [Aside: By the way, I think “to be Comeyed” should enter the lexicon in its verbal form, along with the racier “to Toobin”] Republicans will shamelessly drag out doctors to confirm this and they will pounce on every malaprop and incorrect reference. Never mind that Trump does the same. Somehow, his incompetence has been normalized and is expected, presumably as part of his “charm.” The White House already has effectively sequestered Biden and will continue to do so.
Remember that the delegates Biden will accumulate by-and-large are dutiful party regulars and dependable moderates. Biden stays in the race through late-June, while continuing to be a punching bag for Trump. In the meantime, he will continue to manage an effective, quiet presidency. Carefully chosen surrogates will be out front and visible.
In late June or early-July, only weeks before the Republican Trump-lovefest convention in July, he will declare his term a success, bolstered by good economic numbers, and release his delegates prior to the convention in August. Let’s remember that primaries and caucuses are not votes for the candidates, but for their slate of delegates. A party’s presidential nomination is the result of delegate votes at the convention. When released by the candidate to whom they are pledged, the delegates are free to vote their conscience. This is how conventions used to be, before the highly staged and stylized coronations of the modern era.
Biden’s announcement would take the air out of Republican convention just as it is revving up. The Democrats would be the news. No more will the headlines be about whom Trump might tap for the Vice-Presidential nomination. Instead, the media will offer the Democratic contestants a lot of air time. In the meantime, Trump would have to shift from his current Biden-centric campaign to one against an as-yet-unknown nominee. How fun it will be to see Trump go against all of them at once and have to campaign on policy, rather than politics and invective.
What would follow would be an abbreviated, intense, exciting race lasting only six weeks. There would be no primaries and no caucuses. The delegates already are chosen. In the meantime, the race for the nomination will be wall-to-wall, leading to the Democratic convention in August. A veritable stranglehold on the news cycle for some two months.
I harbor no illusions that the race actually will be hotly contested. My suspicion only two credible candidates will emerge, neither of whom will have the Biden imprimatur. But one of them likely will be the whispered “inside choice,” who ultimately will secure the nomination. The one most likely candidate is Vice President Harris. The other probably would be someone with some national visibility and demonstrated “vigor” (to hit the campaign trail and instill confidence of youth and vitality). I’m guessing that candidate will rise from the often-talked about list of Gretchen Whitmer, Gavin Newsom, or Cory Booker (perhaps Joe Manchin, though I doubt it). The powers that be likely would pass on Harris, due to her perceived unelectability. Perhaps she steps aside quietly, accepting a possible Supreme Court nomination under a Democratic administration or perhaps running to fill Gavin Newsom’s seat as governor, if he is on the ticket.
There would not be enough time for Trump to attack the candidate effectively. And any of these candidates would attract younger voters and non-white voters in greater numbers. One thing is certain—either the presidential or vice presidential candidate must be a woman or a minority (or both), to demonstrate the inclusivity of the party. And while I hate to say this, a white male in one of the two slots would help solidify the ticket.
A final wild prediction: If Biden does step aside, and if I had to make one pick, I’m going to say it’s a Whitmer/Newsom ticket in November and they will win.
Is my proposal merely magical thinking? Is it that far-fetched? As you ask yourself these questions, answer this one: “Is it any less far-fetched than what we’ve experienced in this era of Trump?
Have a great day,
Glenn
Glenn you forgot to mention that the signature block on Hur's report read:
I am Donald Trump and I approve this message
That said the scenerio you presented would be helpful to the entire election process
If President Biden would indeed step aside in June and release his delegates, it would be strategically brilliant. Having someone young would energize people who are on the fence specifically because of President Biden's age. We cannot afford another round with trump in the White House. Our nation would not survive as a Republic. Those people who are considering voting for a 3rd party, or an independent in protest to President Biden's age would be handing the election to the MAGAs. I could be very happy with Whitmer, or Newsom, or Booker, or Buttigieg. I'm not so sure about Vice President Harris, because she has been largely invisible. As much as I love the scenario you describe, I have gotten to a point of severe cynicism and don't see anything positive on the horizon. I hope I'm wrong, and I hope you're right.