#842 Musings Beyond the Bunker (Wednesday January 24)
Good morning,
THIS JUST IN FROM NEW HAMPSHIRE
The complete and total overhaul of the Republican party seems over. As most of the Republican establishment lawmakers line up behind Trump, total surrender to a serial liar who does not appreciate the importance of ideas, ideals, precedent, the law, America’s founding principles, nor our moral responsibility to each other and to the world appears complete. This deeply flawed and dangerous man has the complete obeisance of the Republican party.
BUT WAIT—WHAT ABOUT THE RESULTS?
The New Hampshire results would seem conclusive, yet not so if one compares the results to prior incumbents.
Nikki Haley never was a leading light of intellectual thought, expounder of big ideas, or a leader with meaningful legislation while governor of South Carolina. In the campaign, she offered little in the way of policy proposals and took a while to square off against Donald Trump. She flip-flopped on Trump too long and it cost her. Trump beat her but it wasn’t a kill shot.
Haley actually had an impressive showing in New Hampshire. Trump effectively was running as an incumbent. Measured against incumbent presidents running for reelection, Trump’s margin of victory—54.5% to 43.7% is hardly impressive and isindicative of a divided party. Prior incumbents with such a low margin of victory captured their party’s nomination and went on to defeat. There is reason to believe the New Hampshire results indicate some level of Trump ennui in the electorate.
Haley promises to stay in the race. While she’s elected not to participate in the Nevada caucuses, whose rules were revised by the Trumpists in control of the state party, she will compete in South Carolina, her home state, and likely be defeated. The question, of course, is how much of a defeat. Whether she will be there for Super Tuesday is anyone’s guess. But the longer she is in the race and the longer she can show vote totals in the 35-45% range, the more vulnerable Trump will appear.
WHAT NEXT?
We will see how much damage Nikki Haley can inflict on Donald Trump, who is all but assured of the nomination. At this point, she serves a purpose in allowing the anti-Trump vote an outlet and a continuing demonstration of the opposition to the would-be autocrat.
We still have two HUGE variables. First, will there come a point where Joe Biden might throw in the towel and encourage a new generation to rise up and carry the torch? Second, will the No Labels movement jump in with their candidate? I used to think this would harm Trump but if their presidential nominee is a Republican (or even Joe Manchin), they may draw more votes from the Republicans. If, however, the No Labels presidential candidate were a Democrat, I fear that all but guarantees Trump the win.
2028
While we are still in the 2024 election cycle, a word on 2028… Ron DiSantis pulled out before realization of a disastrous single-digit third place performance in New Hampshire and now is beginning his makeover for a run in 2028. If Trump wins, he will battle it out with Trump’s Vice President in 2028 (assuming there is an election). If Trump loses, DiSantis will paint himself as the heir apparent.
WASHINGTON POST SUMS IT UP
From The Washington Post Editorial Board on the Trump takeover of the Grand Old Party:
“Republican officials endorsing Mr. Trump — and New Hampshire primary voters casting ballots — should be honest with themselves. Mr. Trump is the same person who brought shame upon the country at Helsinki, when he refused to condemn Russia for interfering in the 2016 election; after Charlottesville, when he said “there were very fine people on both sides” of violent clashes around a racist march; and on Jan. 6, 2021, when he encouraged the Capitol invaders in his quest to overturn the results of the 2020 election. The revelations about the pressure he placed on swing-state public officials to defy the will of the voters suggest he is willing to manipulate and erode the institutions of democracy and, after his 2020 attempt, might have more success the next time he tries.”
Have a good day,
Glenn