#836 Musings Beyond the Bunker (Tuesday January 16)
Good morning,
The presidential primary season has begun, with the Republican Iowa caucuses held yesterday. Caucuses are a bizarre way to choose delegates to a convention—but that’s the way the party machinery in certain states organize themselves.
CAUCUSING JUST ISN’T THE WAY TO CHOOSE CANDIDATES
Imagine having to show up at a prescribed time at a neighbor’s home or school room to meet with your neighbors in the precinct and declare your choice for the nomination based upon actually physically moving to one side of the room or another or filling out a slip of paper. There is no “secret ballot” in this process. As should come as no great shock, this system ensures that only the most dedicated—with time to spare, little embarrassment about their choice, and a predisposition to exercise (or succumb to) peer pressure—are those who most likely show up.
Since the “true believers” are those in the Trump cult, it hardly is surprising that Mr. Trump won the caucuses. That said, the game was all about how strong the remaining candidates proved to be. The first “real” test will be New Hampshire’s primary next week, when Nikki Haley is expected to perform better than one would have guessed even a month ago. It will be interesting to see whether she and Mr. DiSantis can poll close to Mr. Trump in New Hampshire results and whether, after that date, Ms. Haley remains the last non-Trump candidate standing.
Of note, the New York Times notes that “At Carl’s Place, a bar in the Sherman Hill neighborhood of Des Moines, no TVs were tuned to caucus coverage; instead the Emmys, an N.F.L. playoff game and a University of Iowa wrestling meet were on.” Only the true believers really care, with less than 100,000 people turning out for the Republican caucuses.
WHAT DID LAST NIGHT TEACH US?
As I write this, in early evening on the day of the caucuses and after over 90% of the caucuses reporting, it appears Donald Trump will realize a landslide victory, with something like 51% of the vote. Nikki Haley or Ron DiSantis will finish second, at around 20% of the vote, and the other will finish third, close behind. This is on the basis of some 100,000 votes cast. The difference between DiSantis and Haley will be less than 2,000 votes. Given the light voter turnout and the disproportionately white and evangelical state of Iowa, one hardly can read enormous amounts into this.
The strategy of being “Donald Trump lite,” declaring war on Disney and woke-ism, and trying to prove he’s a more reasonable version (nice on the outside but more ruthless on policy), did not play well for DiSantis. Haley performed well with the moderates and the educated. My gut is that he will finish a weak third place next week in New Hampshire, pack up his toys and get ready for a run in 2028, after a makeover.
SOME MEASURE OF HOPE
A bit of encouraging news is that Haley and DiSantis are predicted to have captured 40% of the votes in this very conservative state. I would have preferred a Trump plurality, rather than out-and-out majority. The crazy rules for allocation of delegates results in 16 awarded to Trump and four each for Haley and DiSantis. So 40% of the vote ears only 33% of the delegates. New Hampshire should be different, with a more liberal voting bloc. Fingers crossed.
Many pundits suggest Haley is running for Vice President on a Trump ticket. She will need to make a decision pretty quickly. She either can start going after Trump, picking up the Christy contingent, or wallow in second place, hoping for the call from Trump. I hope she goes for the former; although the smart money seem to have concluded otherwise. How she behaves in the next eight days before New Hampshire and heads to South Carolina and Nevada, in the remaining preliminary bouts before Super Tuesday will tell all.
IRRESPONSIBLE JOURNALISM
Of note,, the Associated Press “called” the caucus results before they were concluded. Thus, they are a party to the result. This is yet another example of the preoccupation by most of the media with the “horse race,” rather than the issues, and without regard for how they might affect the results.
PERSPECTIVE
Let’s remember that the Iowa caucuses represent the opinions of only the most dedicated in one of the most White and rural of our states, and one with a small population. It wasn’t even considered meaningful until Jimmy Carter. And as for being a predictor, Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, and Rick Santorum all won in Iowa and did not continue on successfully in subsequent contests.
As Michelle Goldberg writes: “The one thing that unites Americans of all political persuasions, after all, is the conviction that our democracy is failing and our country is going to hell. Tonight, Iowa’s Republican caucusgoers have sent it a little further on its way.”
THE JANUARY 6 “HOSTAGES”
The normalization of terrible behavior continues with the Republican rewriting of the January 6th insurrection—committed with acts of violence and intent to commit further harm or murder, all in the effort to prevent Congress from performing its duties. On Meet the Press several weeks ago, Elise Stefanik, a Trump MAGA convert and election denier, used the word "hostage" to describe those imprisoned for their various roles in storming our Capitol on January 6,2021. As Jon Dishell notes, these people were duly adjudicated convicted felons. They are in no way equivalent to the innocent civilians who, in fact, are held as hostages in Gaza.
Have a good day and contribute to any candidate whom you believe can prevent Mr. Trump and his nefarious ideological sycophants from gaining the levers of government and changing this country beyond recognition.
A bumpy road lies ahead,
Glenn