“No one changes unless they want to. Not if you beg them. Not if you shame them. Not if you use reason, emotion, or tough love. There’s only one thing that makes someone change: their own realization that they need to do it.” –Author unknown
Good morning,
The above quotation describes exactly the dilemma we’re in. I was speaking to a friend the other day who says he simply doesn’t know how to speak with Trump supporters. When he responds to them with facts, the reply is “well, I don’t buy those facts” or “I believe I’m right” (even with no evidence). It’s hard to argue with a mindset that is convinced, 60 lawsuits later demonstrating that the 2020 election was not stolen, that it is, in fact, mathematically possible for Joe Biden to actually have received 80 million votes, that measles vaccinations do not cause autism, that masks actually limit exposure to airborne disease, that the Constitution does not grant the Vice President some magical powers to decide not to certify election results, that mRNA vaccinations are not some “new” and “untested” practice, that lowering taxes does not necessarily stimulate investment, that it’s not ok to try to enlist a foreign leader in smearing a political rival, that the Justice Department does not “work for” the president, etc. I could go on, but you know what I mean.
When facts are not accepted as facts, that’s a problem—particularly after having been repeatedly confirmed and adjudicated. When we are so pig-headed in our views, and so fed information that satisfies our confirmation bias, and when we are just unwilling to consider new facts, then we are doomed.
And it is not enough to say that “science is never settled” or that “there is a group of scientists that disagree.” The science of immunology is science. Climate change is happening. One can dispute the amount by which this has been accelerated by human activity, but it’s happening. And while it is conceivable that there could be a change in the settled, generally accepted facts as we know them, it is highly unlikely. If one always says, “I don’t believe it; after all, all science is only a hypothesis,” one cannot have a productive conversation. To these people no hypothesis can ever be accepted as viable and actionable because at some point in the future there might be new developments.
YOU’RE NOT GOING TO CONVINCE THEM
The crux of my thinking today is that there is no amount of reasoning that will make a difference. Whether tribalism, stubbornness, inability to think critically, or just wanting to be heard, to some facts just don’t matter. And they won’t get there by being presented with facts—no amount of reasoning seems to work. People need to come to their own conclusions. They will not be bullied or reasoned with. They “believe,” and that their beliefs trump known facts, the Constitution, science, data, and statistics. Their belief systems are the same as religious dogma. It will take years and several more elections to see any movement. Hopefully it isn’t too late by then.
IRAN AND ISRAEL
It’s tough to say anything meaningful at this juncture. I think that one must view the Iranian attack separate and apart from the current Gaza war and the amount of destruction and human suffering there on both sides. What should be clear is that there are those in the Middle East who want Israel and the Jews blown off the map. This fact explains many of (but not all of) Israel’s behaviors, as well as its continued military responses to attacks from Iran’s proxies—from Lebanon, Gaza, and Syria. The government of Iran has made clear—repeatedly—that it is hell-bent on the elimination of Israel and to ignore Iran’s rhetoric, its militarization, and its nuclear ambitions is at Israel’s (and the world’s) peril. It makes me wish that we had the old nuclear deal back, which, imperfect as it was, significantly restricted Iran’s processing of nuclear material. Now they’re meaningfully closer than they were when the deal was canceled. When President Trump canceled the deal, he promised something in its stead. Alas, like many of his promises, this one remained unfulfilled.
Iran’s attack on Israel was in response to Israel’s attack on Iran’s intelligence and military headquarters in Syria. To believe that Israel would stand by for repeated attacks coordinated by Iran’s military is naive. It was completely justified in attacking those who were using that base to attack Israel. Iran’s response directly from its soil to Israel’s soil, unsuccessful as it was, due to the coordination of Israel with its allies, the U.S., the U.K. and France (and likely with the tacit support of Jordan for use of their airspace) likely will be met with a military response on Iranian military targets. My hope is that such a targeted and limited response is enough to “even the score” and make Iran pay a penalty for its attack on Israel, without inducing a subsequent response from Iran. The risks to the world of further escalation are not good; but perhaps now the world will increase its concern with Iranian militarization and realize that Iran’s actions follow its rhetoric. More later, as events unfold.
Have a great day,
Glenn
Trump’s face was noticeably rougher than normal this morning before todays trial. My guess is that he’s not that concerned with this trial, but the 2 plus billion he has lost on paper! Sorry, not sorry.
So true. Facts are not the facts anymore.