#792 Musings Beyond the Bunker (Thursday November 9)
Good morning,
At this point, Democrats are gleefully dancing about, celebrating another election that has gone its way, and with good reason. Tuesday’s election continued a long run of elections in which Trumpists and those who played along with the “big lie” and the Trump aggrievement tour have suffered significant losses.
Retaining the governor’s office in deep-red Kentucky, regaining control of the Virginia state legislature, and strong performance by Democrats across the board, it was a good day. The Republicans retained the Mississippi governorship . But arguably the biggest prize was Republican-leaning Ohio voting to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution. And this was after a Republican effort to raise the required vote to amend the state constitution earlier this year (so two separate elections to get this overwhelmingly passed). One also must conclude that the Virginia elections were in part a response to Republican intent to pass legislation limiting abortion to the first 15 weeks.
Freedom of choice is a big issue nationally and Ohio is only the latest in a series of ballot measures supporting that right. “Culture war” issues promise to be a big factor in the 2024 election.
RECENT HISTORY
A quick review shows that since his electoral college victory in 2016 (recall that even in victory, Trump did not receive a majority of the electoral vote), we’ve now been through six major elections (including this year’s “off year” election on Tuesday). During these elections, the Democrats have built up an impressive array of successes. It is hard not to see the trend—the Republican cultural issues don’t play and Donald Trump isn’t the “winner” he purports to be. Here’s a quick recap:
2017 off-year election. No change in the six House seats. A Democratic Senate gain in Alabama (reducing the Republican majority to 51-49) and a pick-up of the Governorship of Virginia.
2018 election. Net Republican gain of two Senate seats. Democrats gained 41 seats in the House and control. Democratic pick-up of seven statehouses in Gubernatorial elections.
2019 off-year election. Only three House seats were up and there was no change. Democrats gained one Governorship election. The Democrats also took control of the Virginia state legislature.
2020 election. Democratic victory in the Presidential election. Democrats retain the House (although lose 13 seats) and gain control of the Senate, with a gain of three seats. You may recall the Democrats secured control after winning both open seats in Georgia. Trump was the first defeated president to preside over the loss of control of both houses of Congress since Herbert Hoover.
2021 off-year election. Only six House seats in play, with no change. One Republican Gubernatorial gain. Big win for Republican Glenn Youngkin in Virginia. Recall against California Governor Gavin Newsom failed.
2022 election. This was supposed to be a “blue wave” of Republican victories. Against the predictions of most pundits and polls, the Democrats picked up a Senate seat and suffered a loss of only nine seats, losing control of the House. The pundits earlier had predicted as much as a 40 seat loss in the House. In Governors’ races, the Democrats gained two additional states.
2023 election. Reelection of Kentucky governor, Virginia legislature victory, Ohio abortion amendment all went to the Democrats. Republicans retained the Mississippi Gubernatorial race.
Add to all this the multiple elections, often in Republican states, affirming abortion rights or defeating anti-abortion measures.
WHAT DOES THIS TELL US?
In the case of ballot initiatives, like abortion rights and legalization of marijuana, the public pretty consistently votes against the prevailing Republican platform.
Candidates supporting the Trump election denying lies generally go down to defeat. Trump-chosen candidates more often lose than win.
The Republicans have “broken the code” on winning elections. Since the brand isn’t selling, the second best thing to do is to disenfranchise voters and limit election access, particularly in minority-dominated big cities.
But let’s not party too hard. While the country would support a “generic” Democratic candidate over Donald Trump—by a big margin—the economy and unforeseen events are hung around the neck of an incumbent president. And while the economy has been performing better than expected, the high national deficit, inflation, high interest rates, and general economic ennui do not help President Biden. Coupled with concerns about his age, which I think are overblown, the multiply indicted criminal (he hasn’t been convicted but the evidence is pretty strong), liar, and sexual predator has a good shot to be elected.
Party for a while, Democrats, and then hone your message and get to work.
All the best,
Glenn