#783 Musings Beyond the Bunker (Monday October 30)
Good morning,
I’m on a losing streak. What I’d like to happen inevitably seems to be the opposite of what seems to be happening on multiple fronts. Here are two:
AMERICAN DEMOCRACY IS AT GREATER RISK TODAY THAN IT WAS LAST WEEK
I was convinced that the Republican moderates would find a way to elect one of their own as Speaker, demonstrating their desire to govern by joining with Democrats. Instead, there are two big winners from the “Speaker Circus”—Matt Gaetz and Donald Trump. In the end, Gaetz’s gambit to remove Speaker McCarthy and install a “true believer” from the angry, election-denying proto-fascist, anti-pluralism, religious right worked like a charm. That the process had to go through multiple iterations that served to demonstrate the power of the small minority was even better! In the meantime, serially-indicted failed coup organizer Donald Trump was able to wield his power over the Republican caucus in a way previously unimaginable for an ex-president, who never won a majority, cost his party key seats in two election cycles, and abetted the loss of Senatorial control. What remains of the Republican party is now the Trump party.
We now have one of the organizers of election denial, a man who doesn’t see the need to separate church and state, a man who believes homosexuality should be illegal, two heartbeats from the presidency. What is remarkable is that the majority of the Republican caucus resisted the last guy with this vision—Jim Jordan. This time, they just fell in line for the sake of “party unity.”
The other place where I seem to be losing is with regard to the Gaza campaign.I would have hoped for a more sophisticated Israeli response centered around surgical infiltration of Gaza to bring people to justice and free hostages. But instead, Israel is being maneuvered by Hamas toward an “eye for an eye” response. A justifiable sense of grievance, a reasonable fear for the future, and a sense that might makes right is moving Israel toward a dangerous war.
THERE ARE TWO WARS
While I fear there will be plenty of time to reflect upon the issues that drive the various antagonists, the history of he region, and the morality of the war (or, for that matter, any war), in future Musings, I want to focus on the battles Israel faces.
Israel is engaging in two wars simultaneously. The first is a war in the “traditional” sense—the effort to render one’s enemy incapable of warring further. The second is a war over public opinion. As to the first, I believe it will be bloodier and more damaging to civilian populations and the morale of the citizenry—on both sides--than either is considering. Hamas has made its position clear. October 7th massacre is the embodiment of their charter’s position on Jewish expulsion and genocide. Israel must act to neutralize an existential risk. How to do it is another question. That Israel is playing as Hamas expected makes me very concerned—both for Israelis and the Palestinian people.
There is little doubt about the causus belli. A group is dead-set on killing your citizens, attained in part most recently in a vile celebration of genocidal murder, abduction, and torture of innocent Israelis.
There are those who call for a ceasefire. Ordinarily, I am in favor of ceasefires, practically as a matter of religious conviction. It is hard for me not to join in any attempt to limit war and stop the killing—particularly of those innocent civilians caught in the crossfire. That said, for people to demand a cease fire prior to Israel achieving any of its legitimate objectives, at least in part, is to allow for mass killing of Jews at a level unseen since the 1940s, without consequence. Barbarism is barbarism and an existential threat is an existential threat. Israel is in a difficult situation—it must act and yet it must restrain itself.
Hamas, the governing power of Gaza, planned and executed the spree of murder and mayhem of October 7th with the clear understanding that an Israeli response would be forthcoming. That response is under way. There is legitimate concern that many targets are near civilian populations. I would hope that the IDF will execute its mission with the same concern for civilians as it has demonstrated in prior conflicts. It will be difficult, as Hamas has done its best to hide its weapons and leadership amidst the civilian population. As such, Hamas must share the blame for the deaths of innocents by virtue of its choices.
WHY HAMAS IS WINNING
I can’t help but think that a war with significant civilian casualties isn’t precisely what Hamas seeks. It prepared its murderous rampage for over a year, enlisting rival Palestinian militant groups in this display of terror. But what could the objectives possibly have been? Well, let’s take a look at the report card:
Instill terror. The goal of terrorism is, of course, to instill terror, and in doing so, counting on a response that will deplete the attacked of treasure, blood and morale. Mission accomplished.
Deplete resources and tank the economy. Israel will now be spending money hand over fist on what may turn out to be a lengthy and largely indecisive ground battle. Plus, calling up 360,000 reservists will leave some segments of the economy underserved for some time. Mission accomplished.
Forestall rapprochement with Saudi Arabia. In betting on an Israeli response, and allowing the “Arab street” to seize upon this as a fight for freedom, Hamas has accomplished this objective, much to Iran’s pleasure. All bets would appear off on this front for some time.
Delegitimize Israel in the Arab world. Hamas has succeeded in creating support for their cause amidst an Arab world that was drifting toward imagining a new era of peace in the Middle East. And while many of the elites actually are rooting for Israel, they cannot state such support publicly. So far, Hamas is right on the money.
Delegitimize Israel and foment antisemitism in the world beyond the Middle East. This is happening with increased fervor daily. Just look at the protests on college campuses, the cheering for Hamas in streets around the world, and increased attacks on Jews (including the murder of a synagogue president in Michigan) and the diversion of a plane to Russia for fear of violence. This seems to be working.
Expansion of the War. This war may provide an excuse for Hezbollah to attack from Lebanon. Make no mistake about it, but Hezbollah’s professional military and weaponry dwarfs the damage Hamas could inflict. All of Israel is vulnerable to rocket barrages from their positions. And we can’t even know whether Iran’s saber rattling will materialize into their joining the conflict—which likely would assure U.S. involvement. It’s a mess. And since disruption is part of the strategy, it may work at an order of magnitude only imagined by Hamas.
CONSIDER MODERATION AND A MANIFESTO
How can Israeli leadership not realize how critical is this moment, the way in which it conducts itself and the way in which it characterizes its interests an objectives? The government should lay out a manifesto for its aims and methods in this conflict.
My hope is that Israel will formulate a message articulating its goals that includes (1) the return of hostages and delivery of the perpetrators to justice, (2) a reduction in air bombardment, asserting its intent to avoid civilian populations, (3) stating unequivocally no desire to occupy, remain, or govern Gaza when this is over, (4) calling for the installation of a stable interim regime to serve the Gazan people, presumably under international Arab supervision, backed by U.S. peacekeepers, and (4) a pledge to help rebuild Gaza, including the establishment of an international development bank, calling on others to help.
Any reasonable possibility to avoid undue bloodshed, while still pursuing the evil that executed this crime, should be pursued. It’s in the best interest of human morality and the best interest of Israel. Only the most hard-hearted of us can look at Gaza and not be moved to tears. Only the most hard-hearted of us can look at what Israel has gone through and not be moved to tears.
Have a great day,
Glenn