Good morning,
CRISIS IN ISRAEL
It is hard to add to the conversation about the late-Friday (L.A. time) coordinated Hamas attack on Israel, emanating from Gaza, other than extraordinary sorrow. The pictures and videos are heartbreaking. The situation is serious and a response intended to neutralize Hamas—perhaps permanently—is likely.
A few things are immutable facts.
First, this was an unprovoked attack. Sure, one can claim that the general nature of the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians was a root cause, as perhaps were Jewish visits and even provocation on the Temple Mount were sufficient to warrant a response—but certainly not one of this magnitude, severity, and inhumanity.
Second, the situation between Israel and Gaza is untenable—somehow there needs to be movement toward a situation in which Israelis and Arabs tired of war somehow can coexist.
Third, Iran, the chief benefactor of Hamas, remains the greatest source of instability, mischief and potential catastrophic risk in the region.
Fourth, this was an intelligence and preparedness failure of epic proportion. Much as the 1973 Yom Kippur War led to the weakening of the Labor Party and its ultimate ouster from governance, there likely will be ramifications politically.
Fifth, there will be much finger-pointing and assessment of blame coming from various sources as to what must have “provoked” the attacks. People in the U.S., Israel, and elsewhere will use the attack by Hamas and its allies to gain political advantage. In fact, it already has begun.
There are shades here of the surprise attacks of the 1973 Yom Kippur War, as this attack occurred on Shemini Atzeret, toward the end of the season of Jewish holidays. But it’s different this time, in that it was carried out with rockets, naval landings, and physical incursions (catching the Israeli Defense Force off guard)— by a well-organized terrorist organization and not by a nation-state. As opposed to a war carried out by hostile neighboring armies, as was the case in 1973, the forces entering Israeli cities were more closely resembled a powerful mob bent on violence and killing, rather than an army seeking military advantage. They were unconcerned with the rules of war and the avoidance of collateral damage—indeed, the “collateral” (aka, innocent civilians, many of whom were children) were consciously sought out and kidnapped. Estimates of hostages taken now range up to 150. We likely will not know the actual number for a while.
Also different from past conflicts is that Israel is not the cohesive society it once was. This Israeli government continues to encourage development of settlements in the West Bank and supports a Jewish presence on the Temple Mount, where the al-Aqsa Mosque is located. The makeup of the cabinet is different from past governments, boasting ministers with past criminality who were deemed unfit to serve in the military. And the government seeks to weaken judicial oversight over a government that increasingly looks like the beginnings of a theocracy (leading to the recent widespread protests).
There always has been a stream of racist invective leveled at Jews in Israel, challenging their very right to exist. It is ugly and it is taught in schools from generation to generation. Now, a racist undercurrent has infiltrated the language of some of Israel’s leaders as well, while that minority seeks to change the nature of Israel’s basic law. For those of us who are Jewish and are Zionists, this sort of language flies against everything we have been taught.
Hamas clearly took advantage of Israel’s internal schism. The government and the nation are not nearly as unified and supported as they were 50 years ago. That said, the advantages of surprise and internal discord quickly will melt away and likely will move all Israelis toward unity in quashing Iran’s proxy army in the South.
PUBLIC OPINION IS A FICKLE THING
Today, most people empathize with Israel, with the Israeli flag and blue and white colors appearing everywhere from the Empire State Building to the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin. But that may change as the Israelis attempt to neutralize Hamas. There will be more bloodshed, while the mantra that “both sides need to exercise restraint” will grow louder. Terrorism is not a stranger to the region, with Israelis living in fear of events such as this. Their worst fears have come to pass. No Israeli government can allow this situation to continue.
Pundits will begin to provide a rationale for the attack—likely because of the increased bellicosity of some ministers in the Israeli government and Israeli presence on the Temple Mount. Some will suggest that this sort of violence is the natural outgrowth of the isolation of Gaza by Israel and Egypt. All of this hypothesizing does little to ease the tensions in the area. And while they might explain the timing and even grievance, they do not justify the violence. There is a long history of terrorism emanating from Gaza and a continued unwillingness to acknowledge Israel’s right to exist. In the end, Israel and its neighbors will need to revisit the idea of economic development of Gaza in return for recognition and pacification—but not today. The audacious incursions into Israel that targeted civilians must be answered.
Alan Rosenbach writes about the inevitability that this war will be characterized as a cycle of violence, rather than a response to terrorism and kidnapping of civilians:
“Over the coming weeks, Israel will have to hit back. Hamas intentionally launches missiles adjacent to nursery school, and hospitals. They hope for collateral damage because they understand that mainstream media will just calculate the number of dead on each side. Hamas understands that they will gain the sympathy of many people in the west.
There is no moral equivalence between terrorists intentionally aiming their weapons at civilians versus a country trying to stop missiles from being launched into their cities.
I’m not a mainstream media conspiracy theorist. However, the New York Times and CNN will just report the number of dead on each side and not make a distinction. The morons who get their news on TikTok, or even the educated people who read the New York Times, will not understand the difference between trying to kill civilians versus collateral damage.”
IMAGES
I am haunted by the videos on the Internet of people being abducted from the streets of towns in Southern Israel. I am haunted by the pictures of missing young people and postings of parents and friends searching for their missing loved ones. I have no doubt that innocent Arab parents will suffer the loss of their children and that most Gazans will be praying just as hard as Jewish parents for this catastrophe to end. In the meantime, the Israeli armed forces are presented with few choices beyond neutralization of Hamas.
Hamas is betting that Israel will trade all Hamas prisoners in Israeli jails for a return of the hostages. After all, Israel has traded dangerous terrorists in the past merely for remains of dead soldiers. I am sure trades are coming but I think return of all the hostages in the near term likely is aspirational and unlikely. I worry that the real end-game for Hamas is not to trade all hostages for the release of prisoners, retaining a number of them for the longer term. In that way, hostages can act as human shields and serve to limit Israeli action.
WHAT NOW?
It likely will get worse before it gets better, depending upon how trigger-happy Hezbollah, with over 100,000 missiles that can hit many Israeli targets, assesses the opportunity presented by this moment.
What does an end game look like? Likely the neutralization of Hamas, international jurisdiction over Muslim religious areas, and some sort of protectorate (perhaps under Egypt, with appropriate compensation) over a pacified Gaza. One would hope that comes with lots of international development dollars to rebuild and stimulate industrial and economic growth. Curiously, Gaza and Jerusalem just might prove to be easier problems to address than the West Bank. One thing, however, is clear—things cannot (and will not) remain the same.
IF YOU WANT TO HELP
The Jewish Federation of Greater Los Angeles has established a site to collect donations to aid those in need—including overtime for caregivers to the elderly, support for families who have lost someone, trauma relief, and basic medical and nutritional services. If you or someone you know wants to help financially, it’s at jewishla.org/donate/2023-israel-in-crisis.
Tough times lie ahead.
Have a great day,
Glenn
Thanks Glenn for sharing all that about the current Israel-Hamas Situation. Primarily i do stand with Israel of course with a sympathetic and compassionate heart to all the civilians being victims of the political escalations. May God Be With these broken hearted and devastated families.
I love the Platform and will keep following up with your posts and be informed to my level best. I truly love your contents! They always keep me sharpened.
Thank you Glenn for your insightful perspective. A lot of prayers for Israel being offered up - thankful for that - even with a lack of full understanding of the historical, and yes, Biblical mandate/reasoning to do so. Your perspective and care in how you are informing “us” is much needed and I for one am thankful. And with that, I/we continue to pray for God to intervene, for innocent lives to be covered, for wise, righteous, and strategic leadership to rise.