Good morning,
DONALD TRUMP—PRESIDENT AGAIN?
“It is most likely that, by the time we get on that debate stage on August 23rd, the front-runner will be out on bail in four different jurisdictions—Florida, Washington, Georgia, and New York.” –Chris Christie
Mr. Trump is unlikely to appear for the debate—why should he? He doesn’t buy into the idea of a national plebiscite of well-informed Americans considering the candidates and the issues. He is the front runner. He performs terribly in debates, as he really doesn’t have a platform, doesn’t respond well to questions, and can only hurt himself.
In the meantime, a New York Times/Sienna poll presents the following data, which on first blush seems startling:
89% of all Republicans say the U.S. is on the wrong track
76% of all registered Republicans have a very favorable or somewhat favorable opinion of Donald Trump
Donald Trump leads Ron DeSantis by 37% (54% to 17%) among likely Republican primary voters. No other candidate gets to double-digits.
Not one of the 319 respondents in the MAGA category believes Mr. Trump committed serious federal crimes and only 2% said he “did something wrong” with the documents at Mar-a-Lago.
This is pretty troubling news. It shows the significant swathe of the population who will support Mr. Trump in any circumstance. The good news (if one can characterize it as such) is that the raw numbers suggest something else. The MAGA base represents 37% of the Republican electorate. They are “hell or high water” supporters of Trump, with another 37% of the party’s voters “persuadable.” But what does this actually mean? If registered Republicans represent approximately 30% of the electorate, that’s a little over 36MM people. That represents half of the total votes Mr. Trump received in the last election. The question is whether he has enough drawing power to capture a meaningful number of independents and Democrats. I think not. But it’s a long way to the election and a lot can happen.
Much of what can happen can make an incumbent appear weak and provide an opening to a challenger. That’s why the specter of a Trump candidacy is so troubling. In ordinary circumstances, he is a long shot. But if disinformation gains footing, Biden gets sick, the war in Ukraine turns, China becomes aggressive, inflation kicks in again, or unemployment rises, that’s a problem. That’s why we should all hope the non-MAGA Republicans can coalesce around a more reasonable candidate. Time will tell.
I think we all have to consider the very realistic possibility that Donald Trump may be elected to a second term in 2024. I perused Facebook this morning to find a cartoon of the statue of liberty bending down to whisper to Mr. Trump, “I want you back.” A thought bubble is over Trump’s head containing a heart. That cartoon has been posted and reposted with the attendant commentary, “right on” and “you have to believe it.” It defies understanding that people are so willing to support this would-be strong man, who almost certainly would singlehandedly destroy NATO, pull back aid from Ukraine, and further the goals of Vladimir Putin and strongmen everywhere. And why do people support him—and at what cost? Lower taxes? Less sex education in school? No access to abortion? Curriculum that doesn’t address civil rights or the Indian wars? More guns? How do these issues compare with the continued existence of a free democracy and a peaceful world order, in which the United States is a major, indispensable player?
TOMMY TUBERVILLE, ABORTION AND WEAKENING THE MILITARY
It remains difficult to reconcile how a party formerly supportive of America’s military can allow this former football coach to hold up hundreds of promotions within the military solely because he wants to restrict the ability of the women of our armed forces to cross state lines for family planning and abortion purposes.
YOGI BERRA, MODERN DAY SAGE
After quoting Yogi the other day, Russ Chittenden suggests:
“My favorite Yogism is about the popular restaurant he finally, reluctantly, had to give up on: ‘That place is so crowded, no one goes there anymore.’”
Then there is the story of the person who asked Yogi the time. His reply: “You mean right now?”
Or the following:
“When you come to a fork in the road, take it.”
“You can observe a lot by just watching.”
“Baseball is 90% mental and the other half is physical.”
Have a great day,
Glenn
"Mr. Trump is unlikely to appear for the debate—why should he? He doesn’t buy into the idea of a national plebiscite of well-informed Americans considering the candidates and the issues. He is the front runner. He performs terribly in debates, as he really doesn’t have a platform, doesn’t respond well to questions, and can only hurt himself."
I have little if any disagreement with anything you wrote above about Trump and I have absolutely ZERO interest in his winning the Republican nomination, much less the Presidency, but this paragraph above intentional blindness and/or hypocrisy of Biden supporters/Trump-haters with respect to the upcoming election cycle. You can replace "Trump" with "Biden" in this paragraph and it remains equally true.
President Biden has drawn 2 primary challengers, once of which (RFK Jr.) is polling in the same range as DeSantis, yet Biden and the Democrat Party have already declared that there will be no debate. Since the party already has a leader, there will be no engaging with legitimate opposition within the party's own ranks. The irony of the "Democratic" party refusing to engage the democratic process should enrage anyone of a serious mind.