#53 Musings Beyond the Bunker (Wednesday June 9)
Good morning!
INTRACTABLE CONFLICTS
It is often said that the Middle East “problem” is an intractable problem. But it is not the first described as such. Some remain intractable to this day and some have stumbled their way toward peace. I want to address two.
One case that remains intractable is Afghanistan. Peter Hopkirk, in his book The Great Game tells the story of attempts throughout history to secure the “silk road” through Afghanistan. In that book and its historical sequels, Hopkirk concludes that Afghanistan is where empires go to fail. Over the last two hundred years, many outside powers have failed to understand, much less conquer, this region. If geography is fate (and it often is), the topography of the area has contributed to the feuds and fiefdoms that make Afghanistan more a loose confederation of inter-connected valleys than a nation-state in the European sense. In the case of the “great game” of the 19th century, the Russians and British fought it out unsuccessfully, failing to achieve resolution, expending blood and treasure senselessly. And of course, the Russians’ failed war in the 1980s was for naught, as apparently the American war has turned out to be.
There are several other seemingly insurmountable problems that come to mind. Who would have believed that “the troubles” that plagued Northern Ireland could have resulted in a (relatively) peaceful resolution that has stood to this day? Who would have believed there would have been rapprochement with China in the 1970s? How are the Hutu and the Tutsi of Rwanda able to actually govern together and live together after a genocide that cost the lives of 15% of the population in three months? It can be done.
Is the Middle East destined to be in an endless cycle of violence? Is it also a place where the aspirations of empires fail? As sad as the current state of play, forward movement has been achieved in reaching understandings with moderate Arab governments. There is some cause for optimism.
In the case of Israel and its Arab minority and the occupied territories, president after president has attempted to work a resolution to the conflict. And while Presidents Carter and Clinton achieved meaningful breakthroughs, and the Abraham Accords have taken a de facto cold peace between Israel and its moderate neighbors and turned it into a de jure reality, negotiations have mostly been a history of promise followed by disappointment.
SOMETHING BIG HAS TO HAPPEN
I believe the current situation requires two “out of the box” game-changers. The first is the Nixon goes to China moment. MBS goes to Israel. The second is that Israel must present a proposed medium-term proposal. Perhaps it is time for Israel to take the high ground and propose something that might have some chance of broad appeal (if only to demonstrate good will). They get the credit for proposing a plan. Let the Palestinians say it can’t work and allow the PR narrative to shift—if only a little. Something like the failed Ehud Barak / Yasir Arafat proposal, or limited sovereignty, or confederacy.
Perhaps something novel will come out of the new Israeli government, now that it is shed of the Era of Netanyahu. One can hope…
IT’S COMPLICATED
I commend to you a book that is reasonably well-balanced in addressing the human scale of the conflict. It is Apeirogon. In geometry, an apeirogon is an infinite polygon with unlimited sides and perspectives. The situation is complex. It does not lend itself to simplistic formulations. The story of this book is the story of a Palestinian father and an Israeli father, each of whom lost a child to the violence of the conflict. How they interact, find meaning, and grieve speaks volumes about the human cost of this conundrum.
Have a great day,
Glenn