#504 Musings Beyond the Bunker (Wednesday November 9th)
Good morning,
PHEW, WHAT A NIGHT
Well, the election has come and gone. Now all that’s left are counting the remaining votes in some key races and the inevitable encore performance of recounts and accusations, which no doubt will continue for a while. It looks like the Republicans gain control of the House, by a tighter margin than the 30 vote swing predicted by presumed incoming Speaker McCarthy. In the meantime, the Democrats, defying the oddsmakers and history, are maintaining a slight edge to retain control of the Senate. And if control shifts, it will be a very skinny majority for the Republicans.
The “big” takeaways thus far:
It may be Georgia—yet again—that decides control over the Senate. The Democrats flipped Pennsylvania and, in a race not yet called, the Republicans appear to have flipped Nevada. If Wisconsin and Arizona are resolved as appears likely, it all comes down to the Reverend versus the football player in a December 6th runoff (because Warnock did not quite breach the 50% threshold to avoid a runoff). Raphael Warnock has to be praying that Donald Trump makes good on his threat to announce his candidacy in the coming weeks, as this would boost the Democratic vote.
The economy clearly was the top issue. Had the inflation rate dipped even a little in the last couple of months, a surprisingly solid night for the Democrats may have turned into a definitive mandate. But inflation and a likely recession, coupled with Biden’s low job approval rating and the inability to articulate economic empathy, likely cost the Democrats a few elections. The Republicans were wise to focus on the economy (the Clinton campaign mantra, “It’s the economy, stupid” is ringing in my ears). The Democrats inexplicably ran from this issue. Yet neither party presented anything resembling a plan.
Abortion rights was the #2 issue. It seems that this was the big motivator the Democrats thought it would be. Abortion rights, a big issue in its own right, also serves as a proxy for a number of issues that social conservatives are pushing that a majority of the population that doesn’t like (see, e.g., the criminalization of aiding someone leaving a state for an abortion, gay marriage, restrictions on contraception, and gun control). In this light, it seems like a proxy vote against the Supreme Court.
The #3 issue was a reaction to sheer nuttiness. Americans don’t like sore losers and they don’t like liars. Thankfully, a majority of Americans accept the results of elections. Voters in purple states and districts tended to repudiate the slate of Trumpist election deniers. In Republican strongholds, deniers in general won—but more likely on party label than on the big lie itself.
Donald Trump was the big loser. His campaigning in the last week was a godsend to Democrats in close races. As Mitch McConnell said it this summer, the Republicans suffered from weak candidate quality, most of whom were endorsed by Mr. Trump. Big Trump endorsements included Mehmet Oz, Kari Lake, Blake Master, and Tudor Dixon. Each of these lost (or is losing). Herschel Walker performed better than I expected, but may well lose in a Georgia runoff. And Brad Raffensperger, the hero of the 2020 election, was victorious in a race where Trump hoped to defeat him for the sin of certifying Mr. Trump’s election defeat. It is my hope the Republicans will slowly move on from Trump and those like him, toward candidate choices more moderate and rational.
While the Republicans are likely to gain control of the House, the narrow margin will be difficult for Kevin McCarthy to control. The whacky wing of Matt Gaetz and Marjorie Taylor Green will have an out-sized voice.
When abortion rights were on the ballot, they were upheld. Pro-rights initiatives in California, Vermont and Michigan were victorious, while a Kentucky initiative to restrict rights was defeated. The Republicans are going to have to square the circle of a base strongly against abortion rights, while a clear majority—including in Republican states—support them.
HOW DID I DO?
So far, my picks have been pretty consistent. Of the Senate races, I predicted the results in New Hampshire, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. And, as I noted, Evan McMullin demonstrated in defeat that a moderate independent could make a respectable run. My prediction that Nevada would flip sadly seems to be happening, while Wisconsin likely will go to Ron Johnson, as I feared (a fringe candidate whose appeal is lost on me).
BOEBERT GOING DOWN?
I suggested yesterday that the whacky Lauren Boebert was the most vulnerable of the highly visible, outrageous, the election-denying conspiracy theorist wing of the Republican party. This may be a warning to that group, though I doubt it. It might be a bellweather that the electorate is fatiguing of extreme rhetoric. Even if she wins in her Republican-leaning district, the message is clear.
ANTISEMITISM DIDN’T PLAY WELL
Bye-bye Doug Mastriano. Pennsylvania didn’t buy your schtick. In the meantime, Josh Shapiro looks like a rising star in the party, and he comes from an important swing state.
WHY THE SENATE MATTERS
If divided government is your goal, and compromising on legislation sent to the President sounds like a good idea, then Democratic control of the Senate gets us there. In scenario #1, where the Republicans control both houses, we will see a lot of performative legislation passed by Congress, forcing presidential vetoes. Much of that legislation will just be to garner political points. In scenario #2, Congress can only bring legislation to the president if the two houses—controlled by opposing parties—can agree. What a concept—they’ll have to work it out and present viable legislation.
The other reason the Senate is important is that if it falls to the Republicans, Mitch McConnell already has indicated that judicial and executive branch confirmations will not be easy and I would view any Supreme Court or Appellate Court confirmations as DOA.
FINAL OBSERVATIONS
In the meantime, some comments from friends that I received yesterday:
David Berkey cites the following list of negatives from this election:
24/7 news cycles
Endless advertisements
Candidate lawn signs proliferating on every street corner
Recriminations and more recriminations
Negative campaigning
Lies and more lies
Hard to eat or sleep
And he concludes: “This is democracy at its very best and as shocking as it may be, America remains the envy of the world and I for one am glad to be live here.”
Bob Lameres notes that, even if Satan himself is victorious, “you have just participated in a democracy. Demos Kratos is alive and well, even if you don’t like it.”
POST MORTEM
This election gave cause for optimism. Many extremists lost. Each party got a little to celebrate, coupled with a warning shot over its bow. Could it be that the Republican party’s “Trump fever” has finally broken? Is it possible each party sees appeal toward the rational middle as the path toward future victories? Will people accept the will of the voters? Will government be productive (most likely with Republican control of the House and Democratic control of the Senate)? There is reason for optimism.
WE DIDN’T START THE FIRE
Hard as it may be to believe, acrimony in politics was not invented in the past few years. These days are tough but they are hardly unique in vitriol and lies; although it seems far more intense than for quite some time, enhanced by the giant megaphones of social media and cable news.
Acrimony and lies began with the party system and Jefferson. For a great historical novel about the abusive press of the early 19th century, and the unholy relationship of newspapers as semi-official house organs of the parties, read Scandalmonger by William Safire. It is an extraordinary read. For an analysis of the effect of social media and its corrosive effects on our society, any recent article by Jonathan Haidt is instructive. The best is “Why the Past 10 Years of American Life Have Been Uniquely Stupid,” in the May 2022 issue of The Atlantic.
In the meantime, we’ll all be watching Georgia in a month, in arguably the most imbalanced match-up of the year. The reverend vs. the Trump-loving, election denying football star. If Herschel Walker wins, it will be a sad commentary and, as I noted yesterday, it proves anyone—and I mean anyone—can be a U.S. Senator.
For now, the Republic survives.
Have a great day,
Glenn
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