#503 Musings Beyond the Bunker #503 (Tuesday November 8)
Good morning,
Today is Election Day. And it’s a big one. Of course, in many states ballots have been coming in for weeks now. As I have noted in the past, this is an important election for a number of reasons.
THE SLOW DRIFT AWAY FROM DEMOCRACY
There is a phrase about autocrats taking control in a democratic election: “one man, one vote, one time.” Never did I think consider the phrase might apply in America. I fear we may be on that path. And while it’s easy to slide into a permanent ruling minority government, the erosion of voting rights, and the loss of faith in our institutions, autocracy is just around the corner. We should remember that each of these steps is easy to take but hard to recover from.
In the five years from the moment Donald Trump came on the scene, we have witnessed one of our political parties—a party of great accomplishments and ideas—surrendering its birthright to a megalomaniac and his minions of election deniers and conspiracy theorists. Certainly scores, and perhaps hundreds, of people who ignore facts and decorum by continuing to claim the last election was stolen will be elected today as State Governors, Secretaries of State and members of Congress.
I’m concerned about continuing restrictions placed on voting, further politicization of the simple balloting, counting and certifying of elections, and the possible ramifications of a case like Moore vs. Harper (and the sophistry of the “independent state legislature doctrine—more about that later…).
Some of my conservative friends and a number of pundits have suggested that most of these people know that this is a lie, but this is what it takes to secure Republican control of Congress and state legislatures. To them, it is worth pandering to an impressionable base while breaking with the long-held traditional Republican support of the rule of law. But whether they actually believe this (and I think many candidates for the House and Secretary of State do believe it) or they lie about their belief that the election was stolen, it’s a lie either way. Profiles in courage…
In any case, we still have a democracy and the American people will exercise their franchise today in a free and fair election. Here are my observations and predictions. I’m pretty comfortable with my analysis of the trends and the ramifications of the election. You should pay little (or no) attention to my picks to win. Your guess is as good as, and likely better than, mine:
THE ELECTION WRIT LARGE
Early voting is at an all-time high. It is heartening to see that the ability to vote over a longer period of time than a single work-day enable those with less control on their busy schedules and obligations can efficiently and fairly cast their ballots and join the rest of us as having a stake in the election.
Although there is a lot of early voting, my sense is that it is less a product of believing in one’s candidates and their policy proposals. Rather, it is born of fear and hatred for the other party and what it might do to undo our American heritage. That said, I’ll take more voting over less voting every day. A more disheartening concern is that early voting among young voters is not at the same pace as those of us more “mature” voters. When the youth become disenchanted, it does not bode well for our future—politically, socially, or emotionally.
There will be a lot of Republican “election watchers” today. They will range from annoying to intimidating. Many will carry cameras. Some will be armed. People will turn away from voting out of fear. Claims will be made, unsurprisingly, that these people influenced results through illegal interference.
Fear of governmental interference in one’s life is a big deal and a big part of both parties’ messaging. But where the Democrats focused on the hypothetical risk to some Americans who have the misfortune of an unwanted pregnancy, the Republicans seized upon fears that are immediate and relatable to a majority of Americans—in the perceived safety of owning a weapon and in stopping perceived indoctrination of children in schools. I think that many voters—even those who are upset about the Dobbs decision—see abortion as a problem without immediate consequence to them. They think it unlikely they or a loved one will fall prey to restrictions on abortion. But they sure as heck worry about their kids. Republicans have stoked fears about children being indoctrinated in wokeness, gender identification, the teaching of a history that exposes historic shortcomings, and the perception that critical race theory is really a “thing.” The Democratic focus on the abortion rights was a mistake. Many Americans worry about their children. Few the right to end an unwanted or dangerous pregnancy (until, of course, it matters a lot).
Americans are voting on the economy and inflation. To the rich, inflation represents a decline in the value of their assets. To the poor, inflation represents the inability to afford staples like energy, milk, and butter. When there is economic stress, they don’t care much about voting rights and being on a slippery slope on authoritarianism. It is something that might be a risk, but it’s far down the road (of course, it’s not that far down the road). That said, can anyone name a single policy objective offered by the Republicans that would meaningfully reduce inflation?
All the Democratic consultants should be fired. The Democrats missed the boat not focusing on the economic assistance provided during and after the COVID epidemic, the infrastructure bill, jobs and wage growth, and demonstrating they could manage through the current inflationary environment and the oncoming recession. They failed to make clear that the inflationary pressures are associated with the COVID pandemic, supply chain disruption, a war in Ukraine, and pressures from (and profit-taking by) OPEC and oil companies. They also failed to clarify that this is a global phenomenon and it has hit other economies to an even greater extent than our own. And they failed to make the case that the rising deficit is the result not only of government “giveaways” to the underserved, but also giveaways to corporations and the wealthiest Americans through reductions in tax rates and continuation of loopholes.
Centrist Democrats have failed to deliver an important message to reasonable Republicans and independents: “I can’t get through to my Republican friends that lowering your taxes is not worth degrading your democracy.” —Fareed Zakaria
THE ELECTION’S AFTERMATH
There will be a lot of ticket-splitting in this election—perhaps near the all-time highs. Incumbency matters, rendering a lot of races, even if close, going to the party holding that seat today.
In every election that is close, there will be multiple claims of election fraud and impropriety, multiple lawsuits and lots of recounts. And it will be ugly.
There will be large protests, some violent, in states with the closest elections and where the results will be in doubt for days or weeks.
Many Republicans will again assert the lie that their elections are being stolen as absentee, mail-in and dropped off ballots are counted late in the evening and early in the morning. This will be silly, of course, in that these ballots don’t get counted and reported as quickly as many polling places. Tucker Carlson, Donald Trump, and others have shown that the facts don’t matter. Conspiracy theorists unite!
THE HOUSE
The House will go Republican AND the total number of votes cast for Democrats nationwide will again exceed the number of votes cast for Republicans.
In one of the few bright spots for the Democrats in the House, at least one election-denying conspiracy theorist will fail in their reelection. My money is on Colorado Representative Lauren Boehbert losing her reelection bid.
Marjorie Taylor Greene will receive a plum committee appointment in the new Republican-controlled House.
The Republicans are likely to win the House and start interminable inquiries and investigations into Hunter Biden, the FBI, and President Biden (and if Hillary’s emails come up, it wouldn’t be a surprise to me a bit), followed by articles of impeachment being filed against President Biden, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, and others.
THE SENATE
Senate control will teeter in the balance. Many predict that the split between the parties will be somewhere between 51 seats for the Republicans and 51 for the Democrats. But there is a good chance the final results will not be known until after the next Congressional term begins on January 3, 2023.
Dr. Oz and Herschel Walker will not be victorious. I understand I’m sounding like a cock-eyed optimist. I understand that many Republican voters have indicated in polling that they will vote for these two knuckleheads, but I believe a combination of heavy early voting and the unwillingness of Republican voters to share with pollsters their true beliefs about these unfit candidates will result in Democratic victories. If Walker wins, it’s a bloodbath of a night. It also means Archie, our labradoodle, should run for Senate. He might meet the age minimum if it’s determined in dog years.
Nevada will go Republican, with Adam Laxalt victorious. That’s a Republican gain of a seat.
Maggie Hassan could lose in New Hampshire. If either she or Mark Kelly in Arizona lose, the Republicans will control the Senate. My money is on the deniers losing, with Hassan and Kelly winning.
Not sure how J.D. Vance beats a moderate strong candidate like Tim Ryan in Ohio, but he will.
It’s intriguing to imagine that an independent in Utah (Evan McMullin), running as a centrist, has made a valiant effect unseat Mike Lee. He won’t win, but he is providing a road map for other would be independents (and the “No Labels” folks) that there is an appetite for more of them in 2024.
Proving that I don’t know anything and a candidate can work hard to be an unattractive option and still win, Ron Johnson will beat Mandela Barnes in Wisconsin.
In summary, hoping for 50-50, my optimistic side saying 51-49, Democratic edge. My head and fear of our fickle electorate suggests 51-49 or even 52-48 the other direction. I don’t think the “red wave” will be as great as the GOP strategists or the polls suggest—but its impact will be felt.
GOVERNORSHIPS
Most incumbents will win.
Gretchen Whitmer will hold on in Michigan against a whackadoodle conservative commentator, notwithstanding some dramatic predictions of an upset.
Josh Shapiro will win in Pennsylvania, soundly defeating the antisemitic and racist election denier, Doug Mastriano.
We won’t know about Arizona for a while. What we know is election-denying Kari Lake is already denying the election in Arizona—unless she wins! The pundits say Lake is heading to victory. I’m not so sure—this will be a nail-biter.
AFTER THE ELECTION
If the Republicans gain control of the Senate, there will be no judicial confirmations for the Supreme Court or Appeals Courts for the next two years.
Shortly after the election, state legislatures and governors will begin again passing (a) restrictions on abortion, (b) restrictions on contraception, and (c) criminalization of aiding someone leaving the state for an abortion, after a brief hiatus for the election that lulled the public into thinking this might be over.
Unburdened by the temporary delay of a midterm election, Republican state legislatures and governors will push more restrictions on number of ballot drop-off boxes, heightened restrictions on voting, normalization of intimidation tactics (like photographing voters), and substituting control of election certification and recounts with politicians in lieu of independent election officials. The waters will be readied for a manipulation of the slates of electors and the certification of the 2024 presidential election.
THEN THERE’S MR. TRUMP WHO, MUCH LIKE A GAME OF WHACK-A-MOLE, CONTINUES TO POP UP
In late-November or December, Donald Trump will announce his candidacy for the Republican nomination. He will be the leading candidate.
Donald Trump will be indicted in Georgia and New York. Maybe in D.C. as well. Trump will use this as a rallying cry, “look how scared they are of me that they would do all this to get me.” Trump will use his candidacy and his legion of lawyers to fight at each and every turn. His immediate goal may be flak in the water and delaying tactics—his ultimate goal is to win the presidency and avoid conviction or sentencing. Strap in.
Have a great day,
Glenn
From the archives: