#324 Musings Beyond the Bunker (Wednesday April 13)
Good morning,
Compromise…
BIDEN, REDUX
I continue to worry about the prospects for the Democrats later this year and in holding the White House in 2024. Part of this is the inability of the administration to secure a coalition to accomplish some of their objectives (they need not win on all fronts—but they need to get something done). Part of this is terrible messaging.
I wrote a while back of the successes of the Biden administration, suggesting that his lack of a coordinated PR campaign, lack of need for nonstop attention and lack of bellicosity should not be read as indicative of failure. The numbers speak for themselves and jobs and economic activity are way up. David Lash points out a few others: “Unemployment is below 4%. While he has been disappointing on immigration there have been significant changes that have profoundly changed people’s lives. Legal aid for poor people is no longer under attack and is getting funded, those judicial nominations that he has managed to get through the obstruction of the Senate have been excellent…at least some police reform has taken place (a federal ban on chokeholds), the government is finally trying to do something about lead poisoning in children from low-income areas, climate change is back as an issue, and no longer do we have a President who lies, bullies, insults, does and says misogynistic, racist, anti-Semitic things, and is an out of control narcissist! All are very significant accomplishments.”
That said, there needs to be compromise on a scaled-down Build Back Better bill that Senators Manchin and Sinema can support (and perhaps even a few Republicans). And the Republicans who share a desire to seek election reform should be embraced so that a compromise can be reached that will ensure less meddling by politicians in what should be a nonpartisan exercise in franchise and certification of elections. Better a somewhat weaker bill in each instance than nothing at all…
IRAN—DOES ANYONE HAVE A BETTER PLAN?
Politics is the art of the possible.
Way back in the Obama administration (it seems like yesterday and yet it also seems like a hundred years ago), the United States entered into a deal that limited Iran’s nuclear breakthrough. At the time, experts suggested Iran was mere months away from producing a nuclear weapon. The deal was imperfect, particularly in failing to limit Iranian support of Hizbollah, and many felt we should go back to the negotiating table. There were justifications for both courses of action. That deal ultimately was adopted and seven plus years later the Iranian regime still does not have nuclear weapons. Trump tore up the deal without its replacement and, as a result, the experts believe the Iranians are now only weeks away from development of a bomb.
I’m not disputing that the agreement had flaws or that someone else might have negotiated a better deal, but it was the only one on the table at the time. Its success can be seen in having delayed Iran’s nuclear ambitions. President Trump came into office vowing to leave the deal and, true to his word, he did. But he also said he would do a better job in negotiating something better. His promise to put something better in its place was hollow, as, was the case with many of his other promises (see, e.g., an Israeli-Palestinian peace deal, a better economic and political relationship with China, a better health care plan, etc., etc.).
A new Iranian deal now is in the works and, again, people are complaining that it won’t be good enough. But what do they suggest in its place? We have seen how the leverage in international relations shifts when nuclear weapons are involved. Russia would not be running with impunity through Ukraine and we would not be putting up with Trump’s pal in North Korea if each lacked the ability to bring about nuclear catastrophe. It is not enough to argue that the impending deal isn’t good enough. Those who object must present a detailed description of a viable alternative and a roadmap for how they would get there. It has been years since Trump pulled us out and the Iranians have, by all reports, made great strides since then. If there is a deal out there that can delay Iran’s designs on nuclear weapons, that will further peace in the Middle East that has a realistic chance of adoption before Iranian “break-out” this would be. good time to demonstrate its feasibility. Whatever comes of this negotiation, the Iranians won’t get what they want, but neither will we or Israel. The perfect, as they say, is the enemy of the good. Without some other alternative, the emerging agreement may have to be good enough.
SOME AMUSING ENGLISH ANOMALIES
When you transport something in a car, it’s a shipment; but when you transport something by ship, it’s cargo.
Queue is a Q followed by four silent letters
Jail and prison are synonyms; but jailer and prisoner are antonyms.
Have a great day,
Glenn
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