#253 Musings Beyond the Bunker (Thursday January 20)
Good morning,
This is the one year anniversary of the inauguration of President Biden. It’s been a difficult past few weeks. The Biden administration must regroup from the dual embarrassments of the Build Back Better and voting rights failures, attributable to the failure to recognize that “half a loaf” is better than none at all (their fault), the ignominy of the Afghanistan pullout (a disaster that is shared across administrations, including President Trump’s commitment to depart on a timetable), and rising inflation (when will people learn that the President does not have magical powers over the economy?).
But there is hope for legislative salvation. A voting rights bill is attainable with the cooperation of the moderate Republicans (Mitt Romney came close to promising a deal is possible, when interviewed on Meet the Press last Sunday). The Build Back Better bill can happen by acquiescing to the demands of Senators Manchin and Sinema to shrink the plan and assure at least 10 years of funding for those aspects that survive. It’s time to make these concessions, declare victory and get moving to other priorities. More important, by the way, than voting rights legislation is the need to amend the Electoral Count Act, which will help clarify Congress’s electoral vote certification process, reducing chances for the type of mischief pursued by former-president Trump last time (and maybe next time).
But let’s also remember that under Biden there are successes as well. And these successes were achieved in the face of the bloody battle for the Capitol two weeks earlier, an outgoing president refusing to accept the election results or attend the inauguration, and a Republican Senate caucus hell-bent on obfuscating the president’s programs or offering up reasonable compromises. That said:
Childhood poverty is at a historic low.
The $1.9 trillion Covid relief program was passed.
The $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill was passed (something Trump promised but didn’t deliver).
Vaccination rates are rising, partially as the result of federal employee mandates and partly out of some of the holdouts begrudgingly acknowledging the truth.
Unemployment is at historic lows, below 5%.
Wage growth is real.
And no one is threatening American democracy from the White House.
There’s a way to go before November. But there’s time.
REMEMBER THE “NEW-NESS” OF MASKS?
Remember in the early days of the pandemic, when masks came into general use (after the CDC told us masks weren’t necessary, in a bit of misinformation to allow health care workers to receive the limited available supply)? Before that, one would look askance at the occasional visitor from Asia, perplexed at their fastidiousness. I, for one, would wonder whether they were germophobes or whether they were sick and trying to protect others. For some reason my brain didn’t draw the connection to the fact that these people actually lived through devastating epidemics in the past. After SARS and other viruses, these people had the benefit of experience.
In the first COVID wave, when we didn’t have vaccines and were doing our best to steer clear of others, there were the early rumblings of resistance to masks and social distancing. As the hospitalizations and deaths increased and little was known, most people quickly fell into a regular pattern of keeping safe, for their own good and for the good of others. And, as one may recall, this involved wearing masks outdoors and crossing the street to avoid bumping into someone walking the other direction.
But there were holdouts, even back then. It remains a mystery why people were so unwilling to “mask up” when the stakes were so low. When I encountered a “rugged individualist,” exercising his right to defy medicine and civility, I wanted to say something. Sometimes I would. Often, however, I would just walk by and shake my head or give a stern glare. Finally, I decided that a non-specific admonition was the way to go. As such, I ordered several t-shirts with the words “HEY DUMMY, WEAR A MASK!” It got a few laughs but, because Andrea wouldn’t be seen in public with that t-shirt, it was short-lived. Perhaps it’s time to bring it back out of retirement.
THE PAIN OF COVID IS REFLECTED IN THE MATH
By now, we are used to two refrains in addressing the ongoing personal strain of the epidemic. The first is that the burdens of COVID are most profound, with longer term consequences, for children between pre-school and high school (with a lesser, but still pronounced, effect on graduate school students and young adults). The second is that the sacrifices necessitated by COVID are seriously burdensome on the elderly, who see themselves on the “back nine” of life, with COVID eating into their few remaining years. Much has been written about the learning deficits of elementary and high school students, and the social deprivations and accompanying depression of the 20-something generation.
I decided to look at the impact on different generations from a mathematical perspective, so I did a little arithmetic on what two years of pandemic living means to various groups:
For a ten year-old to have to has suffered through school and social limitations for two years is a pretty big percentage of their total life on this Earth. Sure, it’s 20% of their lifetimes, but if one assumes that “life begins at four,” when one is no longer a toddler and begins to have some “independent existence” in the world, the percentage is 33% (1/3 of the six years since age four). To them, particularly since these pandemic years are the most recent, pandemic life and masks are “normal operating procedure.”
At age 70, the average female has a life expectancy of another approximately 16.5 years. To live two of those remaining years (and those being the youngest and spriest of those years) is a burden. It means that more than 12% of their remaining life is spent in pandemic living. At age 80, that percentage of remaining years jumps to over 20%.
By comparison, a 40 year old adult, with another 40 good years ahead, two years of “pandemic living” represents only 5% of their remaining years. Plus, at this age the chances of a serious bout with the disease (at least the current variant) are pretty small.
Have a great day,
Glenn
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