#25 Musings Beyond the Bunker (Wednesday May 12)
Good morning,
REAL ESTATE MAY NEVER BE THE SAME
Since I’m in the real estate game, I thought it worth a word about this industry. First and foremost, let’s remember that this industry is a market laggard—after all, its performance is based on nothing more than following how people live, work, shop and play.
Articles abound about all the changes brought about by internet shopping and the convenience of deliveries. While I don’t expect all grocery stores to disappear, the way in which we shop has changed and is still evolving. Increasingly, through the efficiency of logistics and delivery, we will look to shopping as entertainment, as much as necessity. Just take a look at the crowds at the Grove. Those experiences that offer more than picking up a necessity—offering an outing and entertainment—will flourish. Large suburban malls will need to remake themselves.
Article after article talks about the changes in office space and uses. Companies are realizing that their employees can work much of their time from home. This means companies can get the same work more efficiently and reduce their office “footprint.” I read recently that vacancy in Manhattan is over 16%--equivalent to all the space in Downtowns L.A., Dallas and Atlanta combined. Downsizing and “hoteling” will increase (where one uses an office when needed but otherwise doesn’t—like reserving a conference room only when there is a conference).
MEASURING THE ACADEMIC INTEGRITY OF COLLEGES BY THEIR ATHLETIC RESPONSE TO COVID
Of all the responses to COVID, none was more interesting than the responses of the various college football conferences to the COVID-19 pandemic.
I’m a college football fan. Yes, I know, perhaps I am an enabler of a dangerous sport that endangers people’s health. And while I support further work to reduce the harms of the sport and to address those harms when they occur, I do not (yet) favor its elimination.
But let’s talk about COVID-19. I believe there is a direct relationship between the responses of the various college conferences and the values they place on truth, science and academics.
The SEC couldn’t wait to get back to play (“Pandemic? What pandemic?”)
The Big 10 took longer but eventually succumbed pretty early
The Pac 12 took longer still
And the Ivy League at the outset said that football was canceled for the whole season.
And here’s how they rate academically (accepting that US News is not perfect), by how many schools are in the top 40:
All12 Ivy League schools are rated in the top 40 nationally
Pac 12 (Stanford, UCLA, Berkeley, USC, 4/12)
Big 10 (NU, Mich, Wis, 3/12)
SEC (Vandy, GA Tech, FLA, 3/14)
Reverse order of their desire to jump back into the fray of playing football, a highly questionable decision in the midst of COVID.
Coincidence?
Happy day,
Glenn