#194 Musings Beyond the Bunker (Friday November 12)
Good morning!
ELECTION FEVER AND THE FUTURE OF DEMOCRACY
This is the month that marks a full year since Joe Biden was elected President and Donald Trump began his coup to overturn the election. And if it weren’t for an election commissioner in Michigan, a Secretary of State in Georgia and officials in Arizona, he might have been successful.
This month also marks a year until the 2022 elections, when the balance of power in the Senate and House will be determined. Today, it looks like the Republicans will gain seats and the speakership in the House. At that point, the consummate invertebrate, Kevin McCarthy, will become Speaker, with the vast powers that office wields. This is the same McCarthy who condemned Trump after the insurrection, only later to become Mr. Trump’s toady in his repeated visits to Mar-a-lago (the death star) and the demonstration of total fealty to the “the election was stolen” lie. The Democrats may hold the Senate, but only if the left will support the moderates and come out to vote. So far the odds aren’t great.
DONALD TRUMP IS THE ODDS-ON FAVORITE FOR PRESIDENT IN 2024
We can all try to kid ourselves, but as I have said before, absent a bout of ill-health, Donald Trump will announce in late 2022 or early 2023 that he is running. In that likely event, he will almost certainly be the Republican candidate for president in 2024. And he has a better than 50% chance of winning, either fair and square or because the Republicans have assiduously moved to (a) elect their candidates as partisan election officials at the state and county levels, (b) neuter non-partisan election officials, (c) limit voting access, and, most dangerously (d) substitute the judgment of partisan state legislators for non-partisan election officials in certifying election results. This last little bit means that state legislatures in places like Arizona and Georgia can simply send their slate of electors to the Senate, irrespective of the actual result of the vote (because the results, if against Trump, will most certainly be declared fraudulent by the loyal right).
But Trump might even win fair and square if the Democrats are unable to run a viable moderate candidate. Biden is showing the effects of age (which Trump does as well, but it doesn’t seem to matter to his supporters in his case). Harris most certainly will have an uphill battle, as she was not a particularly effective candidate in 2020. Her chances would not seem great. More likely, there will be an open field for the left to challenge her (and/or another moderate). If a “progressive” gets the nomination, Trump will win. If Harris does, he probably would win. But in the end, the actual votes may not matter, as Republican-led legislatures will have the final say in what slate of electors are certified.
As Joseph Stalin said in the early 20th century, "It's not important who votes, what is important is who COUNTS the votes.”
INVEST EIGHT MINUTES
Andrea and I were watching Bill Maher a few weeks ago. As he ran through his scenario, Andrea noted “he’s saying exactly what you’ve been saying.” I responded that anyone who thinks about it for a while likely will come to the same conclusion. It is Maher’s best work ever. Watch it and weep. Then take out your checkbook and support candidates in purple states and districts:
There’s a year to go to stop this from happening…
Have a good day and think about it,
Glenn
From the archives: