#156 Musings Beyond the Bunker (Wednesday September 29)
Good morning,
Just when you thought reason would triumph…
If you read only one bit of political commentary this week, read this by Robert Kagan in last week’s Washington Post: “Our Constitutional Crisis is Already Here”: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/09/23/robert-kagan-constitutional-crisis/
This could be the most important article written about our current political moment and the serious risk of constitutional crisis and armed insurrection.
Kagan is among the most important voices in reviewing the expansion and retreat of democracy around the world. What he has to say about the fate of democracy in our own country is scary. And as much as people want to avert their glance, what he says is prescient and frightening. The future of American democracy is tenuous, as conservative media fuels the flames of racism, fear, extremism, and victimhood. Meanwhile one of the two great political parties, the one typically associated with a deep commitment to American values and one that has been perceived as “too” conservative, unwilling to act hastily, is empowering those set on the destruction of our democracy.
Among the conclusions:
Donald Trump, if he intends to run, will get the Republican nomination. There is no candidate that will mount a meaningful fight and, anyway, they certainly can’t win. He’s the Republican candidate.
Joe Biden is having his challenges. He will be nearly days shy of his 82nd birthday when the 2024 election rolls around. Assuming he’s healthy, he’ll likely run. And it will be a tough, grueling race that would be tough for a man half his age. If he doesn’t run, then the Democratic field is Kamala Harris against all comers. There is good reason to believe that if she runs, it will be an uphill battle. If Joe is out, there will be a battle of the progressives and the moderates for the nomination, weakening the Democratic candidate.
And if the election is close, why do you think the Republicans are putting legislatures in swing states in control of certification of elections and delivering elector lists to Congress next time around?
DEFENDING FAIR ELECTIONS IS DANGEROUS—AND PERHAPS FUTILE
Much has been written about Republican state legislatures limiting access and ease of voting. But what is going on alongside this is the dismantling of non-partisan election management by professionals. This is even more of a miscarriage of democracy than limiting voting access. The Republican legislatures in Arizona, Georgia, Florida and elsewhere are trying to ensure that a Secretary of State or election commissioner cannot perform their duty (as was done in the 2020 election) but, instead, the ultimate decisions rest with the legislature. Meanwhile, election officials in many states and counties are resigning out of frustration and fear of physical harm (yes, they and their families are receiving death threats).
The reasoning here is brilliant and evil in intent. Now claims of a “stolen election,” regardless of actual results or any proven malfeasance, will provide cover for those legislatures to submit slates of electors of their choosing. They will no longer be constrained by the nonpartisan professionals. And let’s be clear—THEY DON’T REALLY CARE HOW THE PEOPLE VOTED. They are transforming a democratic exercise (free and fair elections) into a political one (the decisions of partisan elected officials). As competing slates of electors are certified by warring groups in the states and/or when no electors are delivered, the election will become even more fraught and political. The crisis in Congress will be intense and people like Mike Pence, even if trying to do the right thing after trying like hell to do the wrong thing, no longer can protect us.
And as things have progressed down a dark hole, many of those entrusted with ensuring free and fair elections are being replaced by others, many of whom are inexperienced and/or have bought into the claims that election machines have “secret algorithms” or the last election was fixed. Those who aren’t parroting the Trump big lie have had their lives, and those of their families, threatened.
THEN THERE ARE THE GUNS
Meanwhile, guns are ubiquitous and carried openly in many states. The extremists (I suspect on both sides, but certainly among the far-right) will become increasingly emboldened and angry. Political violence will ensue.
And Donald Trump may be president again. And we may be in a constant struggle against our armed fellow citizens, who increasingly are putting election officials and elected officials under threat of harm. Free speech will be restricted by guns.
ADD IT UP
Restriction of voting access
The lie of fixed elections that doesn’t stop, even though proven false
Even cockamamie recounts, like Maricopa County, which confirm Biden’s victory, won’t stop them. More “audits” by people like the “Ninjas” (yes, that’s their name), fueling a false narrative that results are inconclusive or false
Elections for State Secretaries of State to put in loyalists
State legislators taking over election oversight
Economic uncertainty
More and more guns
Heaven help us.
Glenn
From the archives: