#125 Musings Beyond the Bunker (Tuesday August 24)
Good morning,
My comments about Afghanistan from last week (and the comparisons to the retreat from Vietnam) brought a considerable amount of controversy. Some agreed with my points, others not. But all were thoughtful. Unanimously, they found the quick disengagement to be the result of poor planning and execution. Blame covered the gamut, from “this was all a product of a disastrous war decision” to “Trump locked us in to a quick departure” to “this is proof of Biden’s incompetence.” Sadly, there is truth to all of this. Here are some of the best selections:
THIS IS A “BIDEN BLUNDER”
From Bradley Mindlin: “I agree that the Afghanistan withdrawal is clearly one of the “Biden Blunders”. Another Biden Blunder is his blaming everything on Trump and not showing leadership and taking the blame. He only wants the accolade but sidestep the responsibilities. What happened to the old saying that the buck stops here? I also believe that many more Biden Blunder’s are coming to light. Biden is too worried about credit, trying to keep the progressives in line, and keep the lid on his blunders instead of being and showing true leadership. If Biden is going to be successful, he needs to start being presidential in fact and not trying just to being presidential in social media.”
This seems to be a recurring theme of our times. While there no doubt is blame that can be ascribed to prior occupiers of the White House, in the end, as Harry Truman reminded us, “The Buck Stops Here” (with the president).
WE ARE NOT THE ONLY LOSERS
Ira Waldman notes that this was a predictable result, that Afghanistan is a difficult region to control, and we are not alone in the world agitated over what might follow. He points to a Thomas Friedman column last week, entitled “Three People I Would Interview About Afghanistan”: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/19/opinion/afghanistan-us-taliban.html?smid=em-share
As I’ve noted previously, there is a long parade of great powers that have attempted to subjugate Afghanistan (or, at least, bend it to their desires). The history of these great powers has been singularly dismal. It takes a strange hubris to believe that one can succeed where others have failed and the political support isn’t there.
STOP BLAMING TRUMP
It is more than ironic that supporters of Mr. Trump deride any attempt to affix any blame for the outcome in Afghanistan on him. This is the same president who laid everything at the foot of Barack Obama. But let’s remember that the terms of our departure from Afghanistan were negotiated by the prior administration; the execution was botched by this one.
“How you can impart some of the blame to Trump (whom I also dislike) for what this horrendous President has done is fascinating. It’s such a big blind spot that continually affects so much of your great thinking and writing. It’s like being badly hurt in a divorce and allowing that pain to affect your thinking and decision making. Trump was correct in stating he was wanting to withdraw from Afghanistan. The execution and evacuation plan was the key.” –MARK BERMAN
Mark goes on to say, “much as we dislike Trump, you can be certain this would’ve been handled differently.” What we do know is that he announced our complete draw-down without a plan for the future (which lack of planning continued with Mr. Biden).
Mark Greenfield admonishes me that “it was just a year or so ago that you might have been quick to criticize what-aboutism. No need or service performed to continue to excoriate Trump. We need to deal with the goof who is in there now.”
The only difference with my foray into “what-aboutism” is that Mr. Trump was a material actor in our total withdrawal. I’m not guessing what he would have done; I’m just projecting from what he had agreed upon (and informed by his desire to draw down American troops around the world). But Mark’s right; we can’t know how Trump would have acted here.
MAYBE AFGHANISTAN ISN’T EVEN A COUNTRY…
In my Musing I cited the problems in governing Afghanistan, based largely on centuries-old tribes occupying valleys amidst mountains, only rarely interacting with each other. There really has never been a central government that could exercise control for any meaningful period of time. Ken Kahan notes this and asks that we think about the concept of nation-states and how they exist:
“National defense? Free trade? Unobstructed mobility?
There is no one size fits all. What works in the West might not work in the East or Mideast. Prior to the modern era there were multiple attempts to control all of part of the world. E.g. Greek Roman Persian Ottoman empires. During those periods local populations paid their financial respects to the empire and then (if not totally subjugated) set to control their own populations.”
Ken concludes, “While the digital world theoretically brings us closer together there will always be an opposite tug from localized religious, cultural and geographic considerations.”
Agreed!
MAYBE THIS WASN’T EVEN A WAR
Alan Rosenbach maintains that “an error people make is that they are happy ‘the war is over.’ I don't think there has been a US casualty since 2019. That's not a war. We were a presence, not a fighting force. Perhaps the presence wasn't worth 45 billion a year. But it wasn't a war. Biden is trying to claim that "he ended the war." I don't buy it. It's more like we ended our presence.”
AND IT MAY NEVER HAVE BEEN WINNABLE
Adam Torson says that, “the controversial drone campaign notwithstanding, we were never going to decisively defeat the Taliban as long as they could regroup in Waziristan, and the Pakistani government was unwilling or unable to defeat them...
“As to leaving troops to stabilize - the Taliban was gaining ground in the status quo and would have eventually resumed attacks on US forces if we didn't honor the withdrawal commitment. A stabilizing presence would have meant going back up to like 15,000 (the number at the end of the Obama administration) from the 2,500 at the end of the Trump administration. There was zero political will in either party to increase that commitment and spend that money with no end in sight for the mission. Obama was told in 2015 it would take 100,000 troops, ten years, and trillions of dollars to win the war…”
Adam concludes: “For those reasons, I think withdrawal was the only feasible option. That said, I think they were too concerned with sticking to the outrageous terms the Trump team negotiated…The training mission seems to have been bungled at every turn as the Afghan army was still dependent on US forces and contractors for critical functions like logistics and aircraft maintenance, but we could have lengthened the withdrawal timeline to turn over essential functions to Afghan forces. And, of course, we should have ramped up the visa process long ago, but there was (and still is) domestic political resistance to refugees (escalated dramatically by Trumpian fear mongering)…. Had we fixed the global refugee system in the last ten years the problem would have been much more tractable. Alas...”
SYMPHONIC MUSIC
On a lighter note, from Howard Kroll, remembrances of classical music:
Thanks for those symphonic and concerti snippets. I am a big fan of Mendelsohn, especially his Violin Concerto and the Italian Symphony. I am a big fan of Tchaikovsky (or as my Russian step-grandfather would say as he walked into our house when my father was playing Beethoven symphonies –“Put on real music. Tchaikovsky!”)… While studying or writing papers in college, law school and while working on a big motion at work, I would play classical music to relax me and, in a vain attempt, to get me in the mood for brilliance.
Have a great day,
Glenn
Click here to subscribe to Musings.
From the archives: