#116 Musings Beyond the Bunker (Friday August 13)
Good morning!
THE RECALL
It appears that we in California will be deciding whether to recall Governor Newsom. While I don’t think he has been the greatest governor, he hasn’t been the worst. I also think he has been elected to office, has done a credible job and should be allowed to continue to serve. For those who think we should be able to recall our lawmakers, I remind them that they always have this right—which is exercised every four years. If you don’t like him, vote him out. In the meantime, the waste of the public’s treasure in funding these adventures, the distraction of our lawmakers, and the opportunity cost are beyond understanding. Recall should be something reserved for truly outrageous behavior—not merely that one disagrees with policy.
The California Republican party has figured out how to use recall as a means of achieving electoral victory in a state where the party holds little sway. It works quite simply. If one can get a recall petition on the ballot, then a recall election is held. Remember that “off year” elections have lower turnout. But in a recall, when there are few, if any “down ballot” elections or initiatives, there is little incentive for voters to go to the polls. The “true believers” can be motivated to vote in a recall. The result is an open field for the leading Republican candidate. Why is this so? Because as a practical matter, one would not expect Democratic aspirants to show up on the ballot as alternatives to a sitting Democratic governor. This is, in fact, the case, with a long list of candidates, all Republican or unaffiliated, on the ballot to take Newsom’s place. Vote for recall and you are not presented with anyone approximating the political views of the state’s majority.
And if this doesn’t strike you as concerning, recall that the leading Republican candidate and an odds-on favorite for the nomination, is Larry Elder. Here’s him tweeting on two important issues:
Do I believe there were shenanigans in the 2020 election? Yes. But it’s time to focus on retaking the White House in 2024.
When I become governor, there will be no face mask or vaccine mandates—any in place will be immediately revoked.
Imagine that, that California may send someone to the Governor’s Mansion who adheres to the unfounded lie that the 2020 election was manipulated AND that this same person does not support simple public health mandates. This is the same position, unsupported by facts or evidence, as Governors DeSantis and Abbott maintain in Florida and Texas, respectively. And we can see how well that’s working out…
A LITTLE HISTORY AND OBSERVATIONS
I am suspect of direct democracy, as represented by initiative, referendum, and recall. These three tools are the well-intentioned product of the “Progressive Era,” after the turn of the last century. They were seen as a means of reversing the indirect nature of our representative democracy (the idea that laws are enacted by legislatures, rather than put to a “majority vote” of the people). The push for direct democracy was seen as general positive and a national phenomenon when California adopted these progressive measures in 1911. It was the tenth state to do so. Initially, the initiative process seemed a good thing. Indeed, some of its early successes included the abolition of the poll tax (this was, I believe, the first initiative on the ballot). Later, Earl Warren used the initiative process to revamp the state’s law enforcement mechanisms, which made it easier for him when he was elected Attorney General. Since then, however, it’s been a mixed bag.
The biggest single problem is, of course, that we cannot become a “gigantic legislative body” each election cycle and become conversant on any number of arcane policy initiatives. The idea that the people can ever truly be up to speed on the various nuances of the issues on a ballot loaded with initiatives is, of course, silly. In the end, the way the initiatives are drafted is convoluted and difficult to understand, often by design. There is scholarship that suggests that for many, voting on initiatives is little more than a crap shoot of guess-work. Other scholarship suggests that what ends up happening is that a relatively few people become the “go to” influencers, whose opinions have outsized effect, given the number of votes they sway. One such pundit is Frank Ponder, whose “Ponder-ing the Initiatives” is something I look forward to each election cycle.
IT'S HARDLY DEMOCRATIC HOW INITIATIVES MAKE THE BALLOT
The initiatives that get on the ballot do so because they get the requisite signatures. And how do they generally get these signatures? By paying people to sit outside your local Ralph’s or Pavilions, asking people to sign a petition. The selling point is pretty straightforward and, on its face, persuasive, “At least give us a chance to get this important measure on the ballot.” It seems all very well and good but the only thing accomplished is that the canvasser gets a dollar and we get yet another initiative, likely backed by large corporations with a vested interest or interest groups who see the issue only from one side. In 2020, the eight initiatives on the ballot cost an average of $7.22 per signature.
By agreeing to include an initiative on the ballot, we are agreeing that we are happy to have a thumbs-up or thumbs-down vote on something drafted by a party with a vested interest. There is no negotiation—no hearings—no public comment—no compromise—no careful editing of the initiative and its potentially negative effects. It’s just a binary yes/no. This is a terrible way to legislate.
Recall is hardly better and, in fact, in many ways quite worse. There will be two questions on the ballot. The first is whether the governor should be removed. If the answer to that question is yes, then our votes for the replacement governor will determine who takes Mr. Newsom’s place. But here’s the rub. To vote against the Governor is to throw the recall to the Republicans and the crazies (yes, I know, that venn diagram overlaps a fair bit). You see, no Democrat joined the ballot for replacing Governor Newsom, out of loyalty presumably. If he’s out, we have the choice of a bunch of folks who will split the vote widely and we will be left with no assurance we end up with anyone better (and a good chance of much worse). The Republicans have ingeniously pushed recall, as it offers the only real hope that they can win a state-wide election (since Democrats won’t be on the ballot). And Caitlyn Jenner and others will have a shot!
Don’t let people convince you to allow this miscarriage of democracy to continue. We must require the legislature to act and we must not allow special interests to circumvent our system. Don’t be an enabler of bad government. Politely say, “no thanks, I’m opposed to signing petitions,” take your groceries to the car and go home.
And on the recall, vote on principle, if not on politics. You may think the guy is not great but he hardly should be recalled.
Have a nice day,
Glenn
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