#1025 Musings Beyond the Bunker (Wednesday November 13)
Good morning,
Good morning,
Last week, America experienced a once every two generation political upheaval. There is a giddy glee amongst those who supported MAGA nation and Donald Trump, while there is a sense of gloom and despair among the Democratic supporters. No one really knows what to make of the second Trump term. Will it be a rush of new legislative initiatives? Will it be a restructuring of our political system? Will we descend into a nativist nationalistic phase? Or will Trump be preoccupied first and foremost with retribution against his perceived enemies? We won’t know what he will do first, what will be his focus, and what the political landscape will look like in two years (when congressional elections may reshuffle the deck). Time will tell.
THE NEW COALITION
Trump won in 2016 by attracting corporate and wealthy followers interested in lower taxes and less regulation, along with a disaffected white working class. The first group was rewarded by his actions when in office the first time, while the second group received little in the way of government largesse. Sure, there was a lot of rhetoric and the economy held up, benefitting them indirectly. But there was little in the way of monumental legislation like the Affordable Care Act, or moves to strengthen Medicare or Social Security, nor actions to relieve the economic burdens on young families. This time around, he won increasingly larger shares of Latinos, Muslims (despite his “Muslim ban”), non-white working class, and even young voters. It is a complete shift in the coalition that comprised the Republican party in our lifetimes and those of our parents. They will expect actions that benefit them. I suspect they will be disappointed by the likely increased inflation occasioned by a number of his promised plans. Again, time will tell.
The easy explanation is that the election was a referendum on an unpopular president and rising prices. Sure, there was a lot of talk about the porous border, talk of a tough leader, and talk of a more dangerous world, but the most significant issue was the issue of prices and affordability. As James Carville pointed out over 20 years ago, “it’s the economy, stupid.” To me, the second issue, of more visceral effect, was the question of “cultural issues.” I think there is a clear message from middle America that a focus on identity over merit, pronouns over practicality, and gender choice over gender fairness (e.g., protection of women’s sports) is not appealing to them. I’ll write more about this soon, but that ad about gender surgery for prison inmates arguably was the biggest single cultural moment successfully defining Harris, without any meaningful pushback.
BIDEN’S MISSTEPS
I put much of the recent election results on the shoulders of Joe Biden. Here are my reasons:
When he ran in 2020, he promised to nominate a woman, preferably of color, as his Vice-Presidential running mate. This was a mistake for several reasons. First, it reaffirmed that the Democratic party is preoccupied by identity politics. He stated firmly, whether he meant it or not, that the ethnicity and gender of a candidate was more important than the merit of that candidate. It was a bad message to send to an electorate that had been growing tired of identity politics. Second, it tied his hands in his choice. No longer was he going to pick someone who was going to be a great electoral partner but, rather, someone who represented an image. Third, he chose someone from a state he didn’t need to win and a candidate who had not polled well in the primary. Finally, and most deadly to Kamala Harris, is making her look like someone chosen less for talents than for political statement. This was no favor to Ms. Harris.
Biden had said he was going to be a transitional president. Then, as the 2024 election was on the horizon, he decided to run for reelection. This was a mistake. He broke a tacit promise to the American people and he refused to clear the way for a new generation and demonstrate the “deep bench” the Democratic party possessed.
What Biden must have known and, indeed, those closest to him must have known, was that his physical health was in decline, while the effects of age also appeared to affect his mental acuity. This perhaps will be seen by history as a terrible lie by omission and one for which the Democrats were not forgiven. Whether Mr. Trump’s cognitive failings will become a political problem for the incoming administration is an open question; so far, possibly because of his prior erratic behaviors, it has had little impact.
When Biden failed miserably in the debate against Donald Trump, the evidence was out for all to see. While Trump delivered a weak debate, devoid of substance, Biden showed himself not to be up to the task. While I don’t side with those who believe he demonstrated incompetency to complete his term, he certainly showed the condition of an 81 year old man who has not aged well and whose health reasonably could be expected to decline precipitously in the next four years. By dithering and wringing his hands for a month, he stole valuable time during which the party could have chosen a candidate with sufficient exposure and sufficient time to mount a campaign.
When he finally stepped out of the race, a month too late, Biden anointed Harris as the presumptive nominee. This is despite those like James Carville, who implored the party to conduct a mini-primary and allow several candidates to present their ideas and engage in meaningful debate with each other. This would have demonstrated the seriousness of the party, the depth of the talent to staff a future Democratic administration, and capture a lot of media coverage. Further, presumably a process such as this would have yielded the best candidate. And if it were Kamala, though I doubt it, she would have had the imprimatur of a party that “did the hard work” and chose the “best” candidate.
As I look back, Harris probably never stood a chance, largely because of Biden’s missteps.
Have a great day,
Glenn