#1021 Musings Beyond the Bunker (Tuesday November 5)

Good morning,

Today’s the day we have been waiting for…or dreading…for months. I hope it is peaceful. I will not hide my view that I hope Trumpism will be defeated and give way to a more civil society—in words and deeds and politics. A few Musings on the information being pushed upon us and some predictions for today’s election…

CABLE NEWS, REDUX

As many of you know, I’ve sworn off of cable news for all but scheduled big events (election nights being the prime example) or major breaking news. This means I tune in CNN maybe one day a month and perhaps only one hour that day. I have encouraged others that, for their mental health, they should do the same. Not everything is “breaking news,” and most news can wait until the evening news or (perish the thought!) the newspaper. And by then the news will be distilled, edited and fact-checked .

If you watch Fox News, you probably aren’t even getting the news, but the curated partisan reporting on news stories both fantastical and fantasy to serve the hard right. People tell me MSNBC is similarly biased on the left; although in my experience it more closely parallels the news stories deemed important in the more mainstream outlets. Then again, I try to watch neither. Many of the news outlets and “influencers” prey upon the attraction of confirmation bias.

Advice to all: Feel free to watch CNN into the wee hours this election day. But then make a pledge to reduce your viewing of cable news. Stop relying upon the false friends on social media for advice about important matters. Subscribe to newspapers and journals. Free your mind from the barrage of “breaking news.” You’ll thank me.

WHAT IF ALL THE POLLS ARE WRONG?

In order to satisfy my “news junkie” gene, coupled with a mild case of OCD, I’ve been obsessing for weeks over the polling of voters nationally and in swing states. What I have concluded, too late to make a difference for the health of my nervous system, is that none of it likely has much value at all. Sure, public polls can provide fodder for financial solicitation or to create a “bandwagon effect,” but in the end they are inaccurate enough to be as much a distraction as a source of knowledge. Here are my observations on the polls:

• They are all over the boards and the vast majority are within the margin of error. As such, they are uninformative and, in fact, could lead to incorrect conclusions.

• Who decides what the margin of error actually is? I think what we have learned is that the “experts” know less than we think they know and, as such, cannot be depended upon to reflect an accurate margin based upon traditional statistical sampling methodologies.

• Who is answering these polls? I don’t know about you, but I have a land line that I don’t answer and I won’t answer a call to my cell phone from an unknown number. I suspect I represent a fairly large demographic, namely, those who consciously avoid communications from solicitors.

• And even when answering a phone or being cornered at a supermarket, there is a fairly large number of people who won’t participate (also, these people are part of my “tribe”).

• There has been much written about the “undercounting” of Trump voters in 2016 and other inaccuracies from the last two election cycles. As a result, answers that are obtained from legitimate voter interviews are weighted to account for over- or under-counting that the polling company believes might be happening. What if they’re wrong this time?

• Some of the aggregators of polls, like The New York Times and the Washington Post, have been showing how wildly the results of polls can be off if the polling error resembles one of 2016, 2018, 2020, or 2022. The idea that the aggregators are acknowledging the potential swing due to the various factors outlined here shows how unreliable the poll results (that are repeated and republished like gospel) can be.

• Who’s sitting on the couch next to you? As opposed to the voting booth or filling out a ballot during a moment of privacy, many of these polls are done via phone. When they are answered, we don’t know who’s in the room with the person being polled. I suspect there are more than a few Harris voters who don’t want to share a view contrary to their husband’s within earshot of their husbands.

I DON’T KNOW MUCH…

I’m no pollster but I’ve been reading a lot and I’ve been watching the Trump implosion for days now. I’m prepared to make a few bold predictions:

• Kamala Harris will be our next president. Yes, I know it’s a nail-biter, but I believe in the end our fellow citizens will be reminded of what a charlatan and outright bad actor Donald Trump has been and promised to be. I believe some people may well conclude that Kamala isn’t up to the job. Hopefully, we’ll see if they’re right. But I believe they will hold their noses and vote for democracy, decency, science, and logic.

• How Harris Wins. I think Kamala pulls off her victory by carrying the “Blue Wall” states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Plus, the early voting numbers (based upon actual voters who returned ballots by mail, so marginally more accurate than the popularity polls we seem to be relying upon) show Kamala with anywhere from a 59-40 to 62-33 edge, better than Hillary in 2016 but behind Uncle Joe in 2020. She is leading in early voting in all the swing states but Nevada. If she loses a Blue Wall State, a victory in North Carolina, Arizona, or Georgia plus one more state makes up the difference.

• State-by-State. While the Arab vote in Michigan has been viewed as at risk due to the Biden-Harris support of the Netanyahu war in Gaza, they are not going to vote for the man with the Muslim ban. In the meantime, Josh Shapiro, the Democratic machine, and high voter turnout in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh will deliver Pennsylvania, particularly after the dark racism of the Trump rallies these past weeks, particularly as to Latinos. But even if she loses one of the Blue Wall States, I think she picks up Nevada thanks to the culinary workers’ union, the Harry Reid machine, and my poll-watching. And here’s one to think about: North Carolina may well go for Harris—it’s my boldest prediction. It is more purple than people think. With a self-styled “black Hitler” and “pervert” (my words, not his), who would like to own slaves (his sentiment, I kid you not) running for Governor, the Republican ticket is hurting. But if you believe the New York Times aggregation (which runs several days behind), Trump wins North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, and the election. I think they’re wrong. I think Harris wins Nevada, but not by much.

• The Republicans win the Senate. West Virginia is a nearly certain loss and Jon Tester, as moderate a Democrat as one can find and a public servant of the highest order, is heading to defeat in Montana to a carpetbagger.

• The Democrats win the House. It won’t be by a lot, but a few seats in New York and California should swing the House back blue.

• Wild prediction. Colin Allred pulls an upset of Ted Cruz, generally not well liked, even among conservative republicans.

• What if there’s a wave? If it’s a blue wave, the Democrats retain Ohio and Pennsylvania, with Nebraska and Texas in play. If it’s a red election, the Ohio and Pennsylvania Senate seats could go Republican, despite popular incumbents.

How accurate am I? How much should you depend on these predictions? About as much as you should depend on the pollsters—in other words, not at all.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS

May we awaken tomorrow morning with renewed vigor and hope for the future. May Harris be the President and Trump become an asterisk in history, while a new conservative principled Republican party emerges. May we go back to debating issues and the future and not horse-races and who our “enemies within” might be.

I vote for hope. God bless America,

Glenn